资金减仓，PTA大幅回撤

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, funds flowed into the chemical sector, and PTA significantly increased its positions and rose. On Tuesday, funds flowed out of the chemical sector, and PTA reduced its positions by 136,000 lots and fell sharply again [1]. - In the cost - end, Kazakhstan's crude oil production has recovered, and the global crude oil still faces significant inventory pressure in the first quarter. The fundamentals still drag down oil prices. However, the short - term Middle East situation remains tense, and the US continues to deploy troops in the Middle East [2]. - For PX, the PXN was $357/ton (with a month - on - month change of - $1/ton) the day before last. The spot PX floating performance is weak. The improvement in PX efficiency brings the expectation of further supply increase. In addition, internal and external arbitrage will bring more imports. Meanwhile, the maintenance plans on the demand side are gradually being fulfilled, and the current fundamentals are weak. But the medium - term expectation of PX is still good [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 79 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 0 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 484 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 23 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 419 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 13 yuan/ton). Recently, the market's attention to PTA has increased, and the PTA processing fee has significantly recovered. In the short - term, the supply - demand of PTA is accumulating. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 86.2% (with a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%). Recently, the weaving load has accelerated its decline, and downstream enterprises will start to have concentrated holidays around the end of January. Due to the rapid rise of polyester filament prices following raw materials and the difficulty of the terminal to pass on costs downstream, they mainly digest raw material inventories and passively replenish stocks under the rapid rise of raw materials [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 36 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month increase of 106 yuan/ton). The direct - spun polyester staple fiber has risen significantly following raw materials, but the demand is weak, and the increase is less than that of raw materials. In terms of load, some have slightly increased, and most maintain stable operation. The price increase has driven sales, and the inventory of staple fibers has been significantly reduced [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 543 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 50 yuan/ton). Recently, the Spring Festival maintenance plans of polyester bottle chip factories have been gradually implemented, and the inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth. The market spot supply has slightly decreased, and during the price increase, the transactions are mainly from traders' moderate restocking, and the processing fee of polyester bottle chips has rebounded [3]. - Strategy: For the long - term, there is support for PX/PTA/PF/PR. Go long and hedge on dips. However, the month - spread/basis structure and fundamentals have not significantly improved. Currently, it is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and PTA is stronger than PX. Pay attention to whether there is an unplanned resumption of PTA operation under the repair of processing fees and the fulfillment of PX maintenance [4]. For cross - variety, go long on the PTA processing fee. There is no cross - period strategy [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][11] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][20] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [22][24] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [25][28][30] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [45][47][55] VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [72][74][76] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [85][87][92]