郑棉窄幅波动，糖价低位盘整

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as "Neutral" [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market shows a complex situation with short - term support from pre - holiday stocking but facing downstream and price - difference pressures, and long - term trends depend on policy implementation; the sugar market is expected to bottom - out with short - to - medium - term oscillations; the pulp market will continue to oscillate at a low level due to insufficient domestic fundamental improvements [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,953 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the yarn output of large - scale enterprises was 2.132 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of 4.56%; the cloth output was 3.01 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.12% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton output and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the US cotton export signing progress is slow. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton year has a large increase in production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Although pre - holiday stocking led to good spot transactions, downstream new orders decreased, and finished product inventories were high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pre - holiday stocking supports cotton prices in the short term, but the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures. The long - term trend depends on the implementation of policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average of 108,600 tons [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the short - term export in the Northern Hemisphere is limited, which supports the raw sugar price in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply from Brazil and Thailand will increase, and the market is expected to be loose. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and the planting area in Thailand may shrink. In the domestic market, Guangxi sugar mills are in the peak crushing period, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high, but the syrup import has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage, with limited downward space [4] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider the short - to - medium - term sugar price to be in the process of bottom - out oscillation, and pay attention to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,342 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with a few weakening [6] Market Analysis - The supply side was affected by overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance and price increases, but the global wood pulp inventory is still increasing. The demand side shows marginal improvement in Europe in November, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals have not improved enough, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]