现货供需仍偏紧，成本端驱动仍存

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The spot supply and demand of propylene remain tight, and there is still a driving force on the cost side. The PDH device shutdown news has been gradually realized, and the short - term supply of the propylene spot market is tight. Although the downstream has rigid demand support, the demand follow - up may be limited due to profit compression. The cost side is volatile, and the propylene market is bullish in the short term [2][3] - It is recommended to cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging. The supply - demand structure is still tight, and the cost side and supply - demand fundamentals resonate. Coupled with the hot capital sentiment in the chemical sector, the short - term market may remain strong [4] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6248 yuan/ton (-72), the East China spot price of propylene is 6475 yuan/ton (+35), the North China spot price of propylene is 6405 yuan/ton (+55), the East China basis of propylene is 227 yuan/ton (+107), and the Shandong basis of propylene is 157 yuan/ton (+127) [2] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 71% (-4%), the production profit of PDH - made propylene, MTO - made propylene, and naphtha - cracked propylene is not directly given in a summarized form, and the import profit is - 426 yuan/ton (-24) [2] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder: The capacity utilization rate is 31% (-0.84%), and the production profit is - 305 yuan/ton (-55) [2] - Epoxy propane: The capacity utilization rate is 73% (+1%), and the production profit is - 288 yuan/ton (-4) [2] - N - butanol: The capacity utilization rate is 87% (+0%), and the production profit is 867 yuan/ton (+116) [2] - Octanol: The capacity utilization rate is 96% (+2%), and the production profit is 916 yuan/ton (+60) [2] - Acrylic acid: The capacity utilization rate is 82% (-1%), and the production profit is 203 yuan/ton (+25) [2] - Acrylonitrile: The capacity utilization rate is 75% (-3%), and the production profit is - 1131 yuan/ton (+44) [2] - Phenol - acetone: The capacity utilization rate is 86% (-4%), and the production profit is - 828 yuan/ton (-25) [2] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant inventory is 38980 tons (-7290) [2]