下游观望情绪仍然较重，铅价维持震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The downstream market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although supply in some areas has decreased due to extreme weather, the demand for electric vehicle batteries has dropped significantly as the Spring Festival approaches, while the demand for automotive batteries is still acceptable. Some enterprises may start pre - festival inventory replenishment. The lead price is expected to rise slightly this week, with an overall operating range of 16,900 - 17,700 yuan/ton [1][4] Summary by Relevant Content Spot Market - On January 27, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - 48.53 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,300 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai lead futures main contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 62,123 lots, an increase of 13,107 lots from the previous trading day. The持仓 volume was 60,800 lots, a decrease of 2,985 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,165 yuan/ton and a low of 16,945 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, the downstream's attitude towards purchasing was divided, some continued to wait and see due to fear of price drops, the smelter's inventory increased slightly, and the market trading was rather light [2] Inventory - On January 27, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 211,175 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The overall investment strategy for lead is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]