马士基连报三周价格，后续关注PA联盟2月份价格修正情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The estimated bottom value of the February contract is around 1700 points, and shipping delays and online cargo - booking ratios of different alliances will affect the final delivery settlement price [4]. - Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate drive is weak. The market is speculating on the price - holding expectation of relatively low capacity pressure in March. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate cautiously. The 04 contract's drive is bearish [5][6][8]. - For longer - term contracts, the resumption time of the Suez Canal is uncertain, and the delivery of very large ships in 2026 is relatively small, so the longer - term contracts are expected to have large fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of January 27, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts is 60,170.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 29,874.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1717.50, 1193.90, 1442.20, 1528.40, 1112.00, and 1374.70 respectively [7]. II. Spot Prices - On January 23, 2026, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1595 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2084 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2896 US dollars/FEU. On January 26, 2026, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1859.31 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1294.32 points [7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of very large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity in February is 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 are 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March is 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There are 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA alliance, 6 by the PA alliance, and 1 by the Gemini alliance) and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - Hamas officials said they have fulfilled all the terms of the first phase of the cease - fire agreement. On January 15, Maersk announced that with the improvement of stability in the Red Sea area, the company will resume the Suez Canal route of the MECL service to improve transportation efficiency on the premise of ensuring safety. CMA has decided to divert ships deployed on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal [2][6]. V. Demand and European Economy - In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced on January 8, 2026, that the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled, which may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5].