供需双弱格局下，去库进度艰难

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is significantly supported by the double reduction in supply and demand, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal prices and photovoltaic industry chain prices. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise slightly with small fluctuations. The recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for the photovoltaic industry may stimulate polysilicon rush exports in the short term. However, due to the still sluggish demand and huge inventory, the price increase momentum is limited. The market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the downstream production capacity is accelerating the clearance [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On January 27, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,895 yuan/ton and closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, a change of (-70) yuan/ton or (-0.78)% compared to the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 242,625 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 26, 2026, was 13,115 lots, a change of 144 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 22, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 556,000 tons, an increase of 0.18% compared to the previous week [1]. - The supply side showed a contraction trend, with the January output decreasing by nearly 20% month-on-month, and the industry operating rate dropping to a historical low [2]. - The demand side: The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 (0) yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax rebate policy is expected to increase the short-term demand for polysilicon, and the strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon. The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the organic silicon maintained the peak-shifting emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed a marginal weakening trend, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be mainly stable and weak [2]. Polysilicon - On January 27, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and rose, opening at 51,990 yuan/ton and closing at 51,900 yuan/ton, a change of 0.42% in the closing price compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 41,439 (41,290 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 11,224 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N-type material was 48.00 - 57.00 (-1.50) yuan/kg, and the price of n-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 51.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 33.00, a change of 2.80% month-on-month, the silicon wafer inventory was 26.78GW, a change of 8.07% month-on-month, the weekly polysilicon output was 20,500.00 tons, a change of -4.65% month-on-month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.86GW, a change of 0.28% month-on-month [3]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.30 (-0.03) yuan/piece, the price of N-type 210mm was 1.63 (-0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210R silicon wafers was 1.40 (-0.03) yuan/piece [3]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half-cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - In terms of components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N-type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N-type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation. - Inter - period: None. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillatory rise in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].