尿素日报：订单有支撑-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unavailable Core Viewpoints - The price of urea spot has dropped, and the enterprise's transactions are relatively good. In January, some gas - based and technology - reformed enterprises on the supply side have resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, procurement was weakened last week due to snow and rain, but has improved recently. Agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing. Factories will gradually accept orders for the Spring Festival. There is also procurement for off - season storage. The operation rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded, and procurement has improved. The melamine device has resumed production, with an increase in the operation rate and rigid demand for procurement. The demand in the Northeast region has promoted inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Overall, the inventory in urea factories has decreased, while the port inventory has remained flat. Affected by the situation in Iran, international urea prices have risen, and India is expected to tender again. There is no new news about the current domestic export quota, and subsequent export dynamics, the rhythm of national off - season storage, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment should be continuously monitored [2] - The strategy for urea investment is as follows: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias; for inter - period trading, a positive spread arbitrage for UR05 - 09 should be carried out at low prices; there is no recommended strategy for cross - variety trading [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, Henan basis, the closing price of the urea main contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [5][7][9][14][16] II. Urea Production - Relevant figures include weekly urea production and urea device maintenance loss [5][19] III. Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - Relevant figures include urea production cost, urea production profit, disk production profit, urea capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization rate [5][21][33][36] IV. Urea Foreign - Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - and large - particle urea in China, the difference between the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and China, the difference between the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price in China, export profit, and disk export profit [5][37][42][50] V. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures include the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [5][51][55] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, the number of urea warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the urea main contract, and the trading volume of the urea main contract [5][52][57][62]