在新糖与进口糖双重供给压力下，预计糖价偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Under the dual supply pressure of new sugar and imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to run weakly. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar - making season is basically over, but there are strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the 2026/27 season. India and Thailand have strong production increase expectations and are in the peak production season. The current raw sugar price is significantly lower than the production cost, and the ethanol price is relatively strong, with a neutral raw sugar valuation. Domestically, the domestic sugar production is expected to increase slightly, and it is currently in the peak production season. The import volume remains high from January to February, facing double pressure from domestic new sugar and imported sugar. During the off - season of demand, prices are expected to run weakly [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Brazil's Basic Situation - Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4017000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 226000 tons, and the sugar - making ratio was 48.14%. In the second half of December 2025, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28%; the cumulative sugar production was 4022000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. It is expected that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in this sugar - making season will be around 4050000 - 4100000 tons. As of the end of December 2025, Brazil's sugar inventory was 896000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 62000 tons, and the inventory level was neutral. Stonex (November 2025) predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 sugar - making season would be around 4150000 tons, and the estimates of other institutions were also in this range. The new sugar - making season will start production in April, and the final sugar output will still depend on the sugar - making ratio [2]. - Brazil's ethanol demand remains strong, and the ethanol price continues to rise. Currently (late January), the sugar - making price reaches around 17.35 cents. At the current raw sugar price, sugar mills are more inclined to produce ethanol [3]. India and Thailand's Sugar Production India - According to the data of the Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the sugar production in India in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was about 2590000 tons. According to the report of the NFCSF, it is estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season will be 3500000 tons (350000 tons of sugar will be used for ethanol production). The domestic sugar consumption is expected to be 2900000 tons, the initial inventory is 500000 tons, and the export surplus is 200000 - 250000 tons. The government announced in November that it would allow the export of 150000 tons of new sugar. India's export parity is around 18 - 19 cents per pound, and it is difficult to export effectively at the current raw sugar price. The first bi - weekly report of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) showed that as of January 15, 2026 (starting from October 1, 2025), India's sugar production increased from 1306000 tons in the same period last year to 1588500 tons [5]. Thailand - Thailand is a major global sugar - producing country and the world's second - largest sugar exporter. About 75% of the sugar it produces is for export, so the change in Thailand's supply has an important impact on the global trade flow. According to the final data of the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB) and industry institutions, Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1014000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. According to the latest assessment of the Thai Sugar Company, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to increase by 5% to 1050000 tons, mainly due to the expansion of the sugarcane planting area and sufficient rainfall. As of January 17, 2026 (2025/26 sugar - making season), Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 286510 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55810 tons, a decrease of 16.3% [9]. Domestic Supply and Demand Situation New - year Domestic Sugar Production - According to the statistics of the China Sugar Association, the sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1116000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 120000 tons. The market expects that the sugar production in China in the 2025/26 sugar - making season will be around 1150000 tons. Currently, the domestic market is in the peak production season, and the short - term supply pressure of domestic new sugar has increased [12]. High - level Sugar Imports - China's imported sugar is divided into two categories: within the quota and outside the quota. The import within the quota is subject to a 15% tariff. Since May 22, 2017, a three - year trade safeguard tariff has been implemented for imports outside the quota. After it expired on May 21, 2020, the tariff for imports outside the quota was restored to 50%. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported a total of 580000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190000 tons; from January to December, the cumulative import was 4920000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 570000 tons. In December 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2910000 tons, of which about 390000 tons were exported to China, which means that there will be more imported sugar arriving at Chinese ports in the next one to two months, and the supply pressure of imported sugar in the domestic market is still high [15]. Controlled Syrup Imports with a Sharp Decline - In recent years, the volume of China's imported syrup has increased significantly, and currently about 95% of the syrup comes from Thailand. In December 2024, the import declaration of Thai syrup and premixed powder was suspended, and there was no specific indication of the resumption time. In March 2025, the safety management system of some sugar products (syrup and premixed powder) from Vietnam was evaluated and reviewed. Before the evaluation and review were completed and the risks were confirmed to be eliminated, the import declaration of such products was suspended. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported a total of 69700 tons of syrup premixed powder (including syrup and premixed powder), a year - on - year decrease of 120800 tons, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past five years, mainly affected by import control policies and market demand adjustments. The cumulative import in 2025 was 1188800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1187900 tons, a decrease of about 50% [16][18].