早间评论-20260128

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different futures varieties have different trends and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][10] - Overall, the market shows a complex situation with various factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations influencing different industries Summary by Catalog Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.33% at 112.09 yuan, and others remaining unchanged. The central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 78 billion yuan. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year [5] - Outlook: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7] Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends, with the CSI 300 futures (IF) main contract down 0.20%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) main contract unchanged, the CSI 500 futures (IC) main contract up 0.64%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) main contract up 0.55% [8] - Outlook: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations and economic resilience, along with increased market sentiment and inflow of incremental funds, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [10][11] Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,148.38 with a 0.44% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 28,300 with a 4.02% increase [12] - Outlook: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to a significant increase in precious metals recently and rising speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported at certain ranges [15] - Outlook: In the medium term, the prices of steel products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. Supply pressure is increasing, and inventory is rising. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [16][17] Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight pullback. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported at certain levels [18] - Outlook: The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The port inventory is at a high level in the past five years. The supply - demand pattern has weakened. Technically, there are signs of stabilization. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [18][19] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures had obvious pullbacks. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - Outlook: The futures of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20][21][22] Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract closed down 0.72% at 5,818 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron main contract closed down 0.99% at 5,604 yuan/ton [23] - Outlook: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus pressure continues. Currently, the cost is at a low level, and the support at the low - level range is strengthening. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and closed near the 5 - day moving average. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24][25] - Outlook: The CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new sanctions on Iran and geopolitical risks have pushed up the price of crude oil. The price of crude oil is strong and has room to rise. Investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26][27] Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and was supported by the 5 - day moving average. Singapore's land - based fuel oil inventory dropped to a three - month low due to reduced imports and increased exports. The spot price difference has improved [28][29] - Outlook: Investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract of fuel oil [30] Polyolefins - Market Performance: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had mixed price movements, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. The propane cost remains high, but demand is insufficient [31] - Outlook: This week, the polyolefin market will be in a tight supply - demand situation. The increase in crude oil prices and some production line overhauls may lead to a short - term price increase. The demand is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate upward. Investors can focus on long opportunities [31][32] Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract closed down 1.63%. The price in Shandong was adjusted downward, and the basis was stable [33] - Outlook: The market is expected to oscillate strongly. Key factors to watch include the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and the implementation of January's plant overhauls [33][35] Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract closed down 0.31%, and the 20 - rubber main contract closed up 0.04%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable, and the basis was stable [36] - Outlook: The market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation. Supply is decreasing, demand is expected to be stable to weak, and inventory is increasing [36][37] PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract closed down 0.55%. The spot price remained stable, and the basis widened slightly [38] - Outlook: Although it is currently the traditional off - season for PVC, the market may oscillate strongly due to policy expectations. In the medium term, capacity clearance and increased exports may improve the supply - demand situation. Investors need to be vigilant about demand uncertainties [38][40] Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract closed down 0.17%. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable, and the basis was stable [41] - Outlook: The short - term price of urea is expected to oscillate strongly, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [41][42] PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract fell 2.62%. The PXN spread was adjusted, and the short - flow profit was maintained [43] - Outlook: In the short term, the PXN spread and short - flow profit are stable. The PX start - up rate is declining. The market sentiment and cost (crude oil) may provide support. The market may oscillate and adjust. Investors can participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the risk of external crude oil fluctuations [43] PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 3.17%. The PTA plant load remained stable, and the polyester load decreased [44] - Outlook: In the short term, the PTA processing fee has returned to the average level of previous years, and the upward space is limited. The inventory remains low. The supply side has little change, and the demand side has a seasonal decline. The market may oscillate. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.6%. The overall start - up load decreased, and the port inventory increased [45] - Outlook: In the short term, the supply side is shrinking, and the market sentiment is boosted. However, the port inventory is increasing, and the downstream polyester is in the seasonal overhaul period. The price may have limited upward space. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [45] Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract fell 1.97%. The short - fiber plant load increased, and the downstream terminal开工率 decreased [46] - Outlook: In the short term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level. The sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, and the inventory is at a low level, providing some support. The short - fiber may oscillate with the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46] Bottle - Chip - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract fell 2.52%. The bottle - chip processing fee increased, and the plant load decreased [47] - Outlook: Recently, the bottle - chip load has slightly decreased, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. The bottle - chip is expected to oscillate with the cost side. Investors can participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [47] Soda Ash - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,194 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [48] - Outlook: The market is in a loose situation, and the price is stable for the time being. In the short term, there is a lack of substantial support, and the price will be adjusted stably. It is recommended to be cautious [48][49] Glass - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,066 yuan/ton, down 0.93%. The production line remained unchanged, and the inventory increased [50] - Outlook: The market is in a loose situation. The price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [50] Caustic Soda - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2603 contract of caustic soda closed at 1,951 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The production is high, the demand is low, and the inventory is high [51] - Outlook: The seasonal characteristics are significant. Affected by the price fluctuation of alumina and the cost range of the futures, the trading sentiment may fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the futures may oscillate. However, considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [51][52] Pulp - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,342 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The inventory continued to increase, and the spot trading was light [53] - Outlook: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the approaching end of downstream procurement and the continuous increase in port inventory. The futures may have a short - term technical rebound, and investors should treat it rationally [53][54] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 1.5% to 179,600 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing [55] - Outlook: The price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [55] Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,560 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The US economic data is mixed, and the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose [56][57] - Outlook: The price is expected to be adjusted at a high level. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and the demand is suppressed by high prices. The inventory is increasing [56][57][58] Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,766 yuan/ton, up 1.62%. The alumina market is in surplus, and the aluminum demand is suppressed by high prices [59] - Outlook: The price is expected to be adjusted at a high level. The supply - demand of the aluminum industry chain is under pressure in the short term [59][60] Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 25,025 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [61][62] - Outlook: The zinc price is expected to oscillate and adjust. It lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply [62][63] Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,000 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The supply and demand are both weak [64] - Outlook: The lead price is expected to oscillate within a range. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [64][65] Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.41% to 436,450 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, and the demand has some resilience [66][67] - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly. The supply is tight, and the demand has support from emerging fields. The inventory is decreasing [66][67] Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 1.96% to 143,420 yuan/ton. The cost is rising, and the demand is weak [68] - Outlook: The nickel price is under pressure. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [68] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract remained flat at 2,766 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 1.03% to 8,258 yuan/ton. The US dollar is weakening, and the soybean export competitiveness is increasing [69] - Outlook: The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and investors can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range. The demand for soybean oil has improved slightly, and investors can consider taking profits on rallies [69][70] Palm Oil - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil continued to rise. The export data is good, and the production is declining. The domestic palm oil inventory is decreasing [71] - Outlook: Investors can consider long opportunities after a pullback [71][72] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: The Canadian rapeseed closed almost flat. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is increasing [73][74] - Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see for now [73][74][75] Cotton - Market Performance: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated slightly. The USDA cotton supply - demand report is positive, and the domestic cotton production is increasing, but the inventory increase is lower than expected [76][77] - Outlook: The medium - term cotton price is expected to be strong, but the short - term domestic price is under pressure due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Investors can buy on pullbacks [76][77][78] Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar oscillated, and the overseas raw sugar rebounded slightly. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the domestic sugar supply