气温下降，泰国东北部逐步停割

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both RU, NR, and BR [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, the global supply will shift from the peak season to the off - season, reducing supply pressure. However, there is still concentrated arrival in China in late January, so short - term supply is under pressure. With the reduction of global supply pressure and raw material stockpiling by upstream factories, raw material prices are expected to remain firm, providing strong cost support. The tire开工率 has rebounded, especially for semi - steel tires, and pre - holiday inventory building restricts the domestic inventory accumulation. The relatively low price of NR in China compared to Singapore's 20 - grade rubber makes the short - term rubber price run strongly [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the strong price of butadiene raw materials has enlarged the production loss. Some private plants in North China may reduce production or switch production, which will relieve short - term supply pressure. Although Maoming Petrochemical has restarted, the supply is still abundant. The tire开工率 has rebounded, but high prices may suppress inventory - building willingness. The demand remains stable. Butadiene prices are expected to remain strong, and cis - butadiene rubber prices will follow a strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of downstream demand caused by high prices [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,205 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,085 yuan/ton, with no change; the BR main contract was 13,045 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 15,950 yuan/ton, with no change; Qingdao Bonded Area Thai mixed rubber was 15,100 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Bonded Area Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,940 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton; Qingdao Bonded Area Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,875 US dollars/ton, with no change; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 12,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 6,675,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [2] - In 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 9.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 167.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 9.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 161.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 7,016.2 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [2] - In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the annual automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%, setting a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years [2] ANRPC Report - ANRPC's November 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in November would decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 27, 2026, the RU basis was - 255 yuan/ton (+25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,105 yuan/ton (+25), the NR basis was 467.00 yuan/ton (-32.00); full - latex was 15,950 yuan/ton (+0), mixed rubber was 15,100 yuan/ton (-50), 3L spot was 16,400 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,940 US dollars/ton (-5), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,300 yuan/ton (-50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheets were 60.73 Thai baht/kg (+0.13), Thai glue was 57.90 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 53.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.70 Thai baht/kg (+0.00) [5] -开工率: The full - steel tire开工率 was 62.53% (-0.49%), and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 73.84% (+1.31%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 584,504 tons (-393), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,273,967 tons (+17,175), the RU futures inventory was 109,870 tons (+1,480), and the NR futures inventory was 55,339 tons (-1,411) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 27, 2026, the BR basis was - 345 yuan/ton (+120), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 10,800 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 12,750 yuan/ton (-150), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,300 yuan/ton (-300), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 694 yuan/ton (-233) [7] -开工率: The开工率 of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.12% (-3.57%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,350 tons (-1,690), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 29,050 tons (+2,150) [9]