固收深度报告20260128：分子与分母的拉锯战：债市波动中不同权益板块的应对逻辑

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The "stock-bond seesaw" is not a stable and universal rule. Its essence is the result of the differential pricing of stocks and bonds for the same macroeconomic state. The direction of the stock-bond relationship is determined by the "game between the numerator and denominator." When the economy performs well, corporate earnings improvement supports the stock market, but the expectation of rising interest rates suppresses the bond market and increases the discount rate of the stock market. The direction of the stock index is uncertain, and the bond market weakens. At this time, stocks and bonds may fall together or deviate. The opposite is true when economic growth momentum is insufficient [26][27]. - Different sectors have different response mechanisms to economic driving factors. The dividend sector, with its "quasi-fixed income" attribute, is more sensitive to the denominator (discount rate). In times of economic pressure and rising expectations of loose liquidity, rising bond prices and falling discount rates often jointly promote the valuation repair of dividend stocks, prone to "simultaneous rise of stocks and bonds." In an overheated economy, inflation and tightening expectations may lead to "simultaneous decline of stocks and bonds." It has a strong linkage with the bond market. The core of the growth sector's pricing lies in the long-term profit expectation (numerator). Even in an economic upswing with rising interest rates (falling bond prices), if the industry is in a high - prosperity cycle, profit growth can cover the valuation pressure, and stock prices may still rise, presenting a seesaw pattern of "rising stocks and falling bonds." Conversely, if economic pressure leads to a deterioration of profit expectations, even if interest rates fall (bond prices rise), stock prices may continue to be under pressure, resulting in "falling stocks and rising bonds." Its correlation with the bond market is weak and unstable [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock-Bond Pricing Logic and DDM Model - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) provides a clear framework for understanding the relationship between stock prices and bond yields. Stock prices are affected by two paths: the numerator, i.e., dividends and their future growth potential, mainly reflecting economic expectations and corporate earnings; and the denominator, i.e., the risk - free interest rate, usually represented by the Treasury bond yield. The direction and strength of the stock - bond relationship depend on the relative weights of the numerator and denominator, and may vary significantly in different sectors and time periods [6]. 3.2. Treasury Bond Yield and CSI Dividend Index Price 3.2.1. 10 - Year Treasury Bond Yield and CSI Dividend Index Price - Bonds and dividend stocks are often classified as assets with "fixed - income" characteristics. There is an alternative and rotational relationship between them in investors' asset baskets. When the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises, the risk - free interest rate, social financing cost, and the discount rate of various assets increase. The present value of future dividends decreases, and stock valuations fall. Some funds may flow from high - dividend stocks to bonds, causing the dividend index to decline. The correlation coefficient between the 10 - year Treasury bond yield and the CSI Dividend Index from early 2021 to the present is - 0.67, indicating a negative correlation [10]. 3.2.2. 30 - Year Treasury Bond Yield and CSI Dividend Index Price - The relationship between the 30 - year Treasury bond yield and the CSI Dividend Index price is similar to that of the 10 - year Treasury bond, but due to its longer term, there are differences in the impact mechanism and sensitivity. The 30 - year Treasury bond yield is a representative of the ultra - long - term risk - free interest rate, more sensitive to long - term inflation expectations and economic growth prospects. The correlation coefficient between the 30 - year Treasury bond yield and the CSI Dividend Index from early 2021 to the present is - 0.65, weaker than that of the 10 - year Treasury bond [14]. 3.2.3. Typical Deviation Scenarios - The relationship between Treasury bond yields and the CSI Dividend Index price is not simply negatively correlated. For example, in July 2021, the central bank's unexpected full - scale reserve requirement ratio cut led to a decline in interest rates, but the dividend stocks fell due to the decline in the profit expectation of the numerator. In October 2021, affected by the "energy crisis" and "dual - control" policies, a "stagflation - like" situation occurred. The bond yield fell in advance due to the expectation of "economic slowdown and policy easing," while the stock market was directly hit by the "stagflation" reality. In May - June 2023, due to the macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined, and the stock market was negatively affected [15][21][24]. 3.3. Treasury Bond Yield and ChiNext Index Price - The ChiNext Index, as a representative of long - duration growth assets, is mainly composed of growth industries such as technology and medicine. Its stock price is more dominated by the profit expectation of the numerator, and the correlation with the interest rate is often covered by other factors. When the Treasury bond yield rises, if the profit growth expectation is strong enough, the ChiNext Index may still rise. The correlation coefficients between the ChiNext Index and the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields from 2021 to the present are 0.45 and 0.56 respectively, showing a weak positive correlation, indicating a "seesaw" relationship between the ChiNext Index and bond prices [25]. 3.4. Comprehensive Conclusion - Based on the DDM framework, the dynamic relationship between different sectors and Treasury bond yields is analyzed. The "stock - bond seesaw" is not a stable and universal rule, and its direction is determined by the "game between the numerator and denominator." Different sectors have different responses to economic driving factors, with the dividend sector having a strong linkage with the bond market and the growth sector having a weak and unstable correlation [26][27].