Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-28 06:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][26]. Core Insights - Recent geopolitical events and thematic catalysts have increased market interest in the military sector, with significant gains observed in commercial aerospace, large aircraft, and military trade segments. The industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and rising foreign trade expectations [5][6]. - The report highlights that the military industry is entering a new growth cycle, driven by modernization goals and increased defense spending as outlined in the recent policy meetings. The first half of 2026 is anticipated to see continued improvement in the industry's fundamentals, with a recovery in orders and performance [5][6]. - The domestic industrial policy is facilitating the development of commercial aerospace, with leading companies accelerating their IPO processes. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand growth and technological advancements in driving investment opportunities within the military sector [5][6]. Market Performance - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 4.37%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 6.82%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, and the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.62% [6][12]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industry indices, with the average increase of the CSI Civil-Military Integration Index at 3.73% [6][12]. Stock Performance - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were: - Aero Engine Corporation of China (40.45%) - Aerospace Electronics (22.6%) - Triangle Defense (21.24%) - Beimo High-Tech (20.46%) - Aero Engine Control (18.36%) [12][21] - Conversely, the bottom five performing stocks were: - *ST Aowei (-22.34%) - Shenjian Co. (-15.12%) - Aerospace Power (-12.68%) - Haige Communication (-9.23%) - Saiwei Electronics (-9.08%) [12][21]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 103.17, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 78.49% since January 2014 and 99.82% since January 2019. The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to be at relatively high valuation levels since 2020 [13][18].