2025年12月工业企业利润点评：环比也在改善

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size increased, with improved single - month profitability in December, accelerated inventory destocking, and increased production - sales ratio. The operating pressure may have marginally eased, and the enterprise profit repair trend is initially evident. However, the performance of revenue and profit margin is still divergent, the profit quality is somewhat restricted, and there are also differences among industries, with the mid - upstream performing well and the downstream under pressure. The "anti - involution" measures may have some effects, but the sustainability of profit repair depends on whether policies can stimulate the improvement of terminal demand and drive price stabilization and recovery. The bond market's reaction to the fundamentals may still show the characteristic of "being insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news", and the structural highlights of the economic fundamentals may limit the downward space of interest rates. The view of short - term long - bond oscillation is maintained [3][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In 2025, the cumulative operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was 139.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%; the cumulative operating cost was 118.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; the cumulative total profit was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the operating profit margin increased by 0.02 pct to 5.31% compared with the first 11 months. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits increased by 18.4 pct to 5.3% compared with November [6] 3.2 Event Comments - Profit growth rate recovery and strong seasonality in the month - on - month aspect: From January to December 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth rate increased by 0.5 pct compared with November. The low - base effect contributed, and the month - on - month growth rate was also at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, indicating the improvement of enterprise profitability. The reasons for the recovery of the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in December are: active production (the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value rebounded and the capacity utilization rate improved), weakened drag on the price side (the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed and the production - sales ratio also improved slightly), and the year - on - year growth rate of the operating profit margin turned from negative to positive (an 8.6% year - on - year increase in December, a 22 pct increase compared with the previous month) [9] - Marginal pressure on revenue and improved profit margin: In December, the year - on - year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was - 3.2%, and the decline increased by 3 pct compared with November. In terms of cost and expenses, the cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size for the whole year was 85.31 yuan, and the expenses were 8.62 yuan. The total amount, cumulative year - on - year, and month - on - month growth rates all increased compared with January - November. In terms of profit efficiency, the cumulative value of the operating profit margin from January to December increased from the previous 5.29% to 5.31%, but the profit quality needs to be improved due to the year - on - year increase in cost and expenses and the impact of investment income [9] - Differentiated profit performance: In December, the non - ferrous and high - tech manufacturing industries performed well, while the downstream was still under pressure. Throughout the year, the black metal industry improved significantly, and the equipment manufacturing industry had a stable growth rate. By industry, the profits of the mid - stream non - ferrous, railway and shipbuilding, and downstream furniture manufacturing industries improved significantly in December. From the perspective of the two - year average growth rate, the profit growth rates of the mining, raw material, and equipment manufacturing industries all rebounded. Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry recorded a profit of 109.83 billion yuan, a three - fold increase compared with the previous year; the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry provided strong support, driving the profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 2.8 pct throughout the year; the high - tech manufacturing industry had a remarkable growth rate, with the profit of high - tech manufacturing industries above designated size increasing by 13.3% compared with the previous year, 12.7 pct higher than the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size. By business entity, the profit growth rates of small and medium - sized enterprises, foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises turned from negative to positive, and the profits of joint - stock and state - owned holding enterprises improved significantly [9] - Both nominal and real inventories decreased, and inventory destocking accelerated: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventories of industrial enterprises was 3.9%, a decrease of 0.7 pct compared with the previous month. After excluding price factors, the real inventory was 5.9% year - on - year, a decrease of 1 pct compared with the previous month. The turnover days of finished products were 19.9 days, slightly lower than the previous month, and inventory turnover accelerated seasonally. By industry, some mid - stream manufacturing and downstream consumer goods industries were still in the process of inventory replenishment, while industries such as black metal and textile were actively destocking, and nearly 20% of industries destocked in December. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased compared with the previous month. Notably, the production - sales ratio of industrial enterprises rebounded to near the median of the same period in history, and the asset - liability ratio continued to reach a new high in the same period over the years, which may reflect the marginal improvement of enterprise operating pressure [9]