新西兰强降雨扰动下到船延误

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The New Zealand heavy rainfall and floods have caused short - term shipment delays, affecting the supply of logs to China. The log market shows a complex situation with price fluctuations, inventory changes, and demand differences between regions. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, while in the medium - term, the market will enter a traditional off - season around the Spring Festival in 2026, and the focus will be on factors such as the resumption rate, real - estate policies, cost changes, and demand recovery [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 740 yuan/cubic meter, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, showing an increase. The radiata pine log prices in Jiangsu and Chongqing markets have risen, and the main log contract 2603 first declined and then rebounded. - Futures: As of January 27th, the main log contract 2603 closed at 776 yuan/cubic meter, showing a rebound. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers from New Zealand to China was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter compared to late December 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85% [2]. Log Industry Data - Supply - The New Zealand weather has led to short - term shipment delays. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China from January 26th to February 1st, 2026, is 7 ships, a decrease of 1 ship compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 13%, and the arrival volume is about 219,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 27,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 11%. The actual arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports from January 19th to January 25th, 2026, was 8 ships, a decrease of 3 ships compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 27%, and the arrival volume was about 246,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 123,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 33%. In December 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. Overall, China's total coniferous log imports decreased year - on - year in 2025 [2]. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of January 27th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters compared to last week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.12 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. The total inventory in Jiangsu has been declining continuously, mainly due to the tight supply of some specifications of port spot. The price difference between Shandong and Jiangsu has expanded, leading to some ships diverting to Jiangsu and a significant decrease in the arrival at Rizhao Market [3]. Log Industry Data - Demand - From January 19th to January 25th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,800 cubic meters, an increase of 0.32% compared to last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,100 cubic meters, an increase of 11.42% compared to last week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 19,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 14.91% compared to last week. Downstream demand is suppressed by seasonal factors. The demand shows a north - south differentiation. The price of radiata pine logs in the Rizhao area has increased in the short - term due to concerns about reduced supply from New Zealand and tight inventories of some specifications, while the demand side is weakly stable with little short - term change [3]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook - China's imported radiata pine shows a significant resource - concentration characteristic, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. The anti - involution policy has an indirect boosting effect in the off - season. The May Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement is beneficial to wood product exports. The resumption of importing US logs has been announced, but the short - term arrival volume will be limited. The New Zealand heavy rainfall and floods may affect local logging and shipping [4]. Log Industry Data - Strategies and Suggestions - In the past, from July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, but then entered a low - level oscillation due to weak real - estate demand. In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to factors such as foreign quotes and pre - Spring Festival demand contraction. In the medium - term, around the Spring Festival in 2026, the market will enter an off - season, and attention should be paid to factors such as the resumption rate, real - estate policies, cost changes, and demand recovery [5]. Log Supply Source - Radiata pine mainly comes from New Zealand, and fir and spruce mainly come from Europe [13].