AI新周期核心“卖铲人”，充分受益HBM4与CoWoS升级

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Disco Corporation with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 79,000 JPY, corresponding to a 48x FY26E PE [1]. Core Insights - Disco Corporation is a leading player in the global semiconductor wafer cutting and thinning equipment market, maintaining a market share of 70%-80%. The company has built a comprehensive product lineup around its core technologies of "cutting, grinding, and polishing," and continues to demonstrate industry-leading profitability through its integrated business model of "equipment + consumables + services" [1][15]. - The upgrade of AI chips is expected to drive rapid growth in demand for high-end thinning and polishing equipment. The transition to HBM4/4E and 3nm processes will necessitate thinner wafers (<30µm), with Disco's unique dry polishing technology poised to secure a significant market share in the HBM4 era [2][16]. - Disco's integrated business model, which includes high-margin consumables (approximately 25% of revenue), allows for consistent revenue generation and smooths out cyclical fluctuations. The company maintains a gross margin of 69%-70% due to increased consumable density driven by higher material hardness and precision requirements [3][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global AI chip market is entering a new cycle, with significant capital expenditure growth expected from major storage companies, projected to increase by 17% in 2026. The DRAM market is anticipated to see an 85% increase in value, surpassing 300 billion USD [2][16]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Disco's net profit for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 to be 127.8 billion JPY, 178.5 billion JPY, and 212.3 billion JPY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.1%, 39.7%, and 18.9%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 1,178 JPY, 1,646 JPY, and 1,957 JPY [5][15]. Competitive Positioning - Disco's unique "razor and blades" business model, characterized by high-margin consumables, positions the company favorably against pure equipment manufacturers. The deep integration with clients during the R&D phase enhances pricing power and customer loyalty [3][17]. - The report highlights a divergence from market sentiment, suggesting that concerns over power semiconductors negatively impacting performance underestimate the demand for high-end equipment driven by AI chip performance upgrades [4][18]. Valuation Analysis - The report values Disco at 48x FY26E PE, considering its monopolistic position in HBM and advanced packaging sectors, as well as its superior gross margin structure compared to peers [5][19].