Dongxing Securities·2026-01-28 08:09Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - As of the end of Q4 2025, the market value of actively managed equity funds holding A-shares reached 1.61 trillion, with the banking sector accounting for 30.367 billion, representing 1.89% of the total, which is below the 5-year and 10-year averages of 3.02% and 3.89% respectively [1] - The report indicates a slight increase in the proportion of active funds in the banking sector, while passive funds and northbound capital have seen reductions in their holdings [2][3] - The report anticipates that in 2026, macro policies will be proactive, with the central bank lowering various structural monetary policy tool rates, which will help improve banks' funding costs and encourage lending in key areas [3] Summary by Sections Active Funds - The market value of active funds in the banking sector increased slightly to 30.367 billion, with a proportion of 1.89%, up 0.07 percentage points from Q3 2025 [1] - The concentration of holdings among the top five banks decreased to 57.6%, with notable increases in holdings for Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and others [2] Passive Funds - The overall holdings of passive funds remained stable in Q4 2025, but there has been a significant reduction since January 2026 [2] - By the end of Q4 2025, the market value of banks held by sample ETFs accounted for 6.73% of the net value of stock ETFs, a decrease of 0.99% compared to the end of 2024 [2][27] Northbound Capital - Northbound capital saw a net reduction in bank stocks, with holdings decreasing to 160.27 billion shares, down 13.75 billion shares from the previous quarter [3] - The market value held by northbound capital in bank stocks was 177.26 billion, representing 5.86% of the free float market value, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's fundamentals are expected to remain stable, supported by improved net interest margins and stable asset quality [3]