铜铜铜2026、1、27

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper price is expected to reach the previous historical high. Last week, the copper price rebounded after reaching a low. The Shanghai copper futures reached around 99,500 yuan/ton with good support, and the short - term support level of LME copper was at $12,700/ton. At the beginning of this week, the non - ferrous sector started to rise, and the copper price is expected to reach the previous historical high in the short term [3]. - The logic of the sharp rise in copper prices in 2025 remains unchanged. Benefiting from the reduction of assets such as US Treasury bonds and the US dollar, precious metals like gold and silver have reached new highs. In the context of global currency over - issuance, commodities have become core anti - inflation assets. After gold continuously breaks through $4,500 and $5,000 per ounce, funds are expected to spread from precious metals to industrial metals, and copper and tin are likely to rise successively [3]. - Copper prices face risks in the short term. Copper will face risks such as tariff expectations and inventory conversion between CMX, LME, and domestic markets in the short term, which may lead to a situation where market speculative and investment funds are reluctant to follow up. After the copper price hits the previous high, it still faces the situation of long - liquidation, so it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high near the new high [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet shows the production, supply, consumption, and surplus of copper from January 2025 to June 2026. For example, in January 2026, the total production was 1.18 million tons, the total supply was 1.36 million tons, the total consumption was 1.28 million tons, and the surplus was 88,000 tons [4]. - There are also data on year - on - year changes in total supply, consumption, cumulative production, and cumulative consumption. For instance, in January 2026, the year - on - year change in total supply was 7.33%, and the year - on - year change in consumption was 10.30% [4]. 3.2 Main Mining Enterprises News Updates - The CSRC approved the registration of options for 20 - rubber, low - sulfur fuel oil, and international copper at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange [7]. - Zijin Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II was put into operation. After reaching full production, the total production scale will reach 350,000 tons per day. In 2026, the expected copper production will reach 300,000 tons, and the molybdenum production will increase from 8,000 tons in 2025 to about 13,000 tons [7]. - The CAPSTONE copper mine in Chile was shut down due to a strike [7]. - McMoRan Copper & Gold's Q4 2025 adjusted EPS exceeded expectations. The company plans to restart the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in phases in Q2 2026 [7]. - The ICSG reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 94,000 tons in November 2025, and the cumulative surplus in the first 11 months of 2025 was 206,000 tons [7]. - Rio Tinto Group's copper equivalent production increased by 8% in 2025. In 2026, the company aims for a copper production of 800,000 - 870,000 tons [7]. 3.3 Copper Concentrate/Crude Copper Processing Fees - Last week, the spot TC of copper concentrate decreased slightly. The core contradiction of the tight supply in the copper concentrate market remains unresolved. Without substantial positive news, the spot TC is expected to continue to be under pressure. The market's core concerns focus on long - term contract negotiations, sulfuric acid price trends, and the recovery of global copper mine supply [12]. - The domestic trade copper concentrate spot market is stable. Refineries mainly replenish inventory as needed, and the procurement rhythm is steady. The pricing coefficient of imported copper concentrate converted to domestic trade is expected to remain high and may rise slightly in the short term [12]. 3.4 Copper Concentrate Port Data - Last week, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 ports in China was 723,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week. The main increase came from Fangchenggang Port [15]. 3.5 Smelting Profit - Last week, the zero - order TC price continued to decline, the sulfuric acid price remained below 1,000 yuan/ton, and the copper price was flat. The long - term contract of smelting enterprises had a profit of 780 yuan/ton, while the zero - order contract had a loss of about 710 yuan/ton [20]. 3.6 Shanghai Copper Spread Structure - Last week, the copper price was flat. The arrival of domestic copper increased, but the inflow of imported copper was limited due to the large loss in import parity. Downstream processing enterprises' procurement demand was cautious, and holders maintained a discount quotation. At the beginning of this week, the contango structure of the near - month contract widened to around 300 yuan/ton, but the increase in the discount of holders was limited [22]. 3.7 London Copper Structure Curve - As of January 23, the LME copper inventory increased slightly by about 17.17 tons, mainly from New Orleans. The cancelled warrant ratio decreased slightly to about 26.95%. The cash month was quoted at a discount of about $66.06/ton. Some goods originally flowing to the US started to turn to China, and both overseas and domestic inventories increased [30]. 3.8 London Copper Position and Warrant Concentration - The Futures Banding Report of LME shows that the short - term light - position long positions of copper prices increased, while the medium - term light - position short positions increased to medium - sized positions, and the long - term light - position short positions decreased. The Cash Report and Warrant Banding Report show that the market concentration increased [32][33]. 3.9 Shanghai - London Ratio Change - Recently, the copper price was flat, the Shanghai - London ratio was maintained at around 7.8, and the loss in the import window was maintained at 1,400 yuan/ton. As the copper supply in non - US overseas markets continues to be tight, the ratio is expected to remain weak [35]. 3.10 Scrap Copper Market - In the scrap red copper market, the copper price fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was sluggish. Upstream traders were cautious, and downstream manufacturers' production enthusiasm was not high, mainly maintaining rigid - demand procurement [38]. - In the scrap brass market, the copper price fluctuated widely after opening lower, and the price center of scrap brass moved down slightly. Upstream traders were cautious in replenishing inventory, and downstream brass enterprises had difficulty in selling goods, and their raw material procurement demand was weakened [38]. 3.11 Downstream Enterprises and End - Users - Refined copper rod: The overall operation of refined copper rod enterprises has not returned to normal. Although the overall orders decreased week - on - week, the actual output was basically the same as before [40]. - Recycled copper rod: The production of recycled copper rod manufacturers did not improve. The raw material supply was difficult, and the product sales were not smooth, which may affect future output [40]. - Copper tube: The output of copper tube enterprises increased slightly, and the ex - factory price decreased. The supply was mainly driven by large - scale enterprises, and the demand of air - conditioning host factories' long - term orders was stable, while the spot market was more affected by price fluctuations [40]. - Copper foil: The supply of the copper foil market was stable. The capacity utilization rate of electronic circuit copper foil was high, and the supply of lithium - ion copper foil was also relatively stable, and the market supply and demand were loose [40]. - Copper plate and strip: The overall operation of the copper plate and strip market changed little. Some downstream enterprises started pre - holiday inventory plans, but the upstream copper factories did not increase production significantly. The supply and demand of brass plate and strip were weak, while the supply of red copper plate and strip was relatively stable [40]. 3.12 Inventory Changes - Recently, the domestic inventory remained at a high level, and the inventories of LME, CMX, and bonded areas increased. The LME inventory increased slightly due to the transfer of goods between overseas regions and the export of some overseas and domestic goods [43]. 3.13 Bonded Area Inventory Changes - On January 19, the cumulative copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 118,300 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons from the 12th and an increase of 800 tons from the 15th. The inventory increase was mainly due to the arrival of export goods from smelters, but there were still goods leaving the port for export [46][48]. 3.14 Shanghai Regional Social Inventory - At the beginning of this week, the inventory in Shanghai was 204,100 tons, an increase of 12,400 tons from the 19th and an increase of 8,200 tons from the 22nd. The arrival of goods in Shanghai warehouses increased, and the downstream procurement demand was limited, so the inventory continued to accumulate [50]. 3.15 Guangdong Regional Social Inventory - At the beginning of this week, the inventory in Guangdong was 45,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from the 19th and a decrease of 2,200 tons from the 22nd. The arrival of goods decreased, and the warehouse outbound volume did not increase much, so the inventory continued to decline slightly [56]. 3.16 Wuxi Regional Social Inventory - At the beginning of this week, the inventory in Jiangsu was 86,500 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the 19th and an increase of 1,300 tons from the 22nd [65]. 3.17 CFTC Position - As of January 20, the non - commercial long and short positions accounted for 36.5% and 17.6% respectively. The long positions increased by 0.4%, and the short positions increased by 1.3%. The non - commercial net long position was 52,575 contracts, and the COT index was 0.822, and the strength of the copper price slightly weakened [72].