瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to have a short - term adjustment, with attention on the battle for MA10, in the range of 14,100 - 14,800 yuan/ton. The market's long - position atmosphere is decreasing as the position volume decreases and the price corrects [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The 03 - 04 contract spread is - 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,482 lots, an increase of 2,264 lots, and the main contract position volume is 123,373 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 39,654 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (cut - edge, Wuxi) is 14,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of stainless steel is 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total nickel - iron output is 21,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons, and the import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 146,100 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,070 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 539,300 tons, an increase of 800 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 95,000 units, an increase of 37,000 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 321,000 units, an increase of 10,000 units. The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In December 2026, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6% year - on - year, achieving the first growth in four years. The US government is approaching a shutdown. The Federal Reserve officials are expected to pause interest - rate cuts this week, and there are differences on future interest - rate cuts. In the raw - material end, the raw - material supply of nickel - iron production will face contraction pressure. [2]