碳酸锂周报：大起大落-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view of lithium carbonate is "oscillation". The demand production schedule in February is expected to decline month-on-month, but the decline is within the market's judgment in December. Expectations such as export rush and negative feedback from upstream price increases are not significantly reflected in the February production schedule data. Attention should be paid to whether there is a large gap between the production schedule and actual output. Due to the optimistic long - term demand outlook before the Spring Festival, the demand production schedule for March has been significantly increased, making the demand in Q1 basically flat month - on - month. Therefore, changes in the March demand production schedule may cause certain disturbances to the futures price. In the short term, without strong negative feedback from downstream, the price may still tend to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Additionally, recent regulations are strict, so investors should pay attention to the daily price amplitude and hold positions carefully [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - The futures price of lithium carbonate reached a new high this year. Last week, the main contract price of lithium carbonate futures rose to 181,500 yuan/ton, with the main LC2605 contract opening at 147,600 yuan/ton, closing at 181,520 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 182,000 yuan/ton and a low of 142,100 yuan/ton during the period, a weekly increase of 24.16% [7][11] - The spot price increased week - on - week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 8,000 yuan/ton to 171,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also increased by 8,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 3,500 yuan/ton week - on - week [13][19] 3.2 Lithium Ore - The prices of domestic and imported lithium ore increased week - on - week. The prices of domestic lithium spodumene concentrates with grades of 3% - 4%, 4% - 5%, and 5% - 5.5% increased by 800, 825, and 1,275 yuan/ton respectively to 9,225, 12,325, and 15,675 yuan/ton. The prices of domestic lithium mica concentrates with grades of 1.5% - 2.0% and 2.0% - 2.5% increased by 240 and 290 yuan/ton respectively to 3,300 and 5,125 yuan/ton. The CIF prices of imported lithium spodumene ore with grades of 1.2% - 1.5%, 2% - 2.5%, and 3% - 4% increased by 5, 7.5, and 12.5 US dollars/ton respectively. The CIF prices of Australian and Brazilian lithium spodumene concentrates increased by 190 and 175 US dollars/ton respectively to 2,275 and 2,255 US dollars/ton [26] - The available inventory of lithium ore at ports increased week - on - week. As of January 23, the total inventory of domestic main port traders and warehouses for sale increased by 53,000 tons to 200,000 tons compared with January 16. Among them, the spot inventory of domestic lithium ore traders in major ports increased by 53,000 tons to 191,000 tons, and the inventory for sale in domestic warehouses (excluding factory raw material inventory) remained unchanged at 9,000 tons [30] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply - The weekly output decreased slightly. Last week, the domestic lithium carbonate output decreased by 388 tons to 22,217 tons. By raw material, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene, mica, and salt lake decreased by 210, 54, and 30 tons respectively to 13,914, 2,882, and 3,115 tons. By region, the weekly output in Qinghai, Jiangxi, and Sichuan increased by 15 tons, decreased by 465 tons, and decreased by 220 tons respectively to 3,375, 7,585, and 4,425 tons. The weekly operating rate increased by 1.5 percentage points to 52.8% [37] - The monthly output in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 1,230 tons to 97,970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. Among them, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene, mica, salt lake, and recycling increased by 410 tons, decreased by 850 tons, decreased by 50 tons, and decreased by 740 tons respectively to 61,260, 12,500, 14,940, and 9,270 tons [37] - The production cost of purchased lithium ore increased. The production cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) increased by 14,419 yuan/ton to 159,791 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1,549 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton. The production cost of purchased lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) increased by 7,269 yuan/ton to 153,199 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 5,471 yuan/ton to 11,911 yuan/ton [41] - The total inventory decreased slightly. As of January 22, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 783 tons to 108,896 tons. Among them, the inventories of smelters, downstream, and other lithium carbonate increased by 107 tons, 1,940 tons, and decreased by 2,830 tons respectively to 19,834, 37,592, and 51,470 tons. As of January 23, the registered warehouse receipts totaled 28,156 tons, an increase of 698 tons compared with January 16 [48] 3.4 Cathode Materials and Electrolytes - Ternary materials: The price increased significantly last week, with an increase of 3,150 - 5,550 yuan/ton. As of January 22, the weekly output increased by 621 tons to 18,256 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 611 tons to 18,868 tons. The output in January is expected to reach 78,180 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The production profits of 523 - type and 811 - type ternary materials increased by 15,505 and 19,075 yuan/ton respectively to - 13,670 and - 9,350 yuan/ton [56] - Lithium iron phosphate: The prices of power - type, low - end, and mid - high - end lithium iron phosphate increased by 3,155, 3,050, and 3,150 yuan/ton respectively. As of January 22, the weekly output increased by 293 tons to 87,319 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 700 tons to 96,590 tons. The output in January is expected to reach 363,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. Considering that the processing fees for cathode materials have been negotiated, the actual output in January may be higher than expected [58] - Lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate: The production schedules in January are expected to decrease. The output of lithium cobalt oxide in January is expected to reach 10,330 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.2%. The output of lithium manganate in January is expected to reach 11,920 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [63] - Electrolyte: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 9,000 yuan/ton to 146,000 yuan/ton last week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8%. The output of lithium hexafluorophosphate in January is expected to reach 27,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6%. The output of electrolyte in January is expected to reach 213,130 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6%. The upstream and downstream inventory days of lithium hexafluorophosphate are 9.7 and 9.8 days respectively, an increase of 0.5 and 0.8 days compared with the previous period [65] 3.5 Batteries - Production: The total domestic battery output in December 2025 reached 206.77 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.9 GWh. In January 2026, the total battery output is expected to reach 194.53 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 6% [71] - Inventory: As of December 2025, the domestic power and energy - storage battery inventories were 145.4 and 35.3 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 GWh and a decrease of 4.6 GWh. The inventory - to - sales ratios of power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries increased by 0.21, 0.02, and decreased by 0.14 months respectively to 1.61, 0.97, and 0.53 months [74]