橡胶甲醇原油：风险溢价增强能化震荡走强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. The price center shifted slightly up to 16,360 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.24% increase. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 80 yuan/ton. Driven by the collective stabilization and rebound of the energy - chemical sector, the rubber price is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher on Wednesday. The price reached a maximum of 2,348 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,294 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.43% increase. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread converged to 21 yuan/ton. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks, methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating strongly, and rising significantly on Wednesday. The price reached a maximum of 463.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 446.5 yuan/barrel, closing with a 2.49% increase. With the resurgence of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the crude oil premium rebounded, and the short - term oil price will maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. During the week, the capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises fluctuated. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had support from foreign trade orders, and the production scheduling of the devices increased slightly, while most other enterprises maintained stable production scheduling. The full - steel tire had increased shipment pressure, and some enterprises had a moderate production control phenomenon, dragging the capacity utilization rate slightly lower. Currently, it is in the pre - "Spring Festival" inventory preparation stage, and most enterprises have no plans to significantly adjust production scheduling to reserve inventory and meet post - festival supply [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new historical high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a significant increase of 83,300 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period of the previous year [10]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 25.43%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.33%. In addition, the dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 5.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 84.70%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.32%. As of January 23, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 111,700 tons, and a significant increase of 255,600 tons compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 438,400 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 47,200 tons, and a significant increase of 138,800 tons compared with 299,600 tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 410, a week - on - week slight increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.732 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 21,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.602 million barrels and a significant increase of 14.386 million barrels compared with the same period of the previous year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 25.063 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.478 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 414.5 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 806,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 93.3%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.0 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts or 34.07% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts or 95.12% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,360 yuan/ton | +155 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,305 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | 2,339 yuan/ton | +35 yuan/ton | - 34 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 427.3 yuan/barrel | - 2.4 yuan/barrel | 460.3 yuan/barrel | +13.6 yuan/barrel | - 33.0 yuan/barrel | - 16.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: Includes charts of rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][18][22][24][26]. - Methanol: Includes charts of methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32][34][36][38]. - Crude Oil: Includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][43][45][47][49].