Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-28 09:20Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, and the focus range is 14 - 15 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 144,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,740 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,235 dollars/ton, a decrease of 355 dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 27,881 hands, a decrease of 12,238 hands [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings of Shanghai nickel is - 70,458 hands, a decrease of 1,190 hands; the LME nickel inventory is 285,726 tons, an increase of 174 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 50,794 tons, an increase of 2,614 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,788 tons, unchanged [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 44,822 tons, an increase of 2,323 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 146,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 146,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 214.32 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.36 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,228.62 million tons, a decrease of 44.76 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 75.53 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.72 million tons, a decrease of 1.45 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 53.93 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6% year - on - year, achieving the first growth in four years [3]. - The US government shutdown is approaching, Trump talked with the governor of Minnesota and agreed to consider reducing the number of ICE [3]. - Fed officials are expected to pause rate cuts this week. There are obvious differences among officials on whether and when to continue rate cuts in the future [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroscopically, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6% year - on - year, achieving the first growth in four years. The US dollar has fallen to a four - year low [3]. - Fundamentally, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 250 - 260 million tons next year, and the domestic trade base price is expected to rise significantly, causing concerns about tight raw material supply [3]. - On the smelting side, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. China has large refined nickel production capacity, and with the recent rise in nickel prices and profitable production margins, the refined nickel output is expected to rise again [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless steel plants have improved, and the production schedule is expected to be high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, the domestic nickel inventory is on an upward trend, and the market mainly buys on dips. The spot premium is at a high level, and the overseas LME inventory continues to increase [3]. - Technically, the position is decreasing and the price is adjusting, and the long - position sentiment is cautious [3].