瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, globally and in Canada, the supply - demand pattern of rapeseed is relatively loose, which restricts its market price. In the domestic market, oil mills are in a shutdown state, supporting the current rapeseed meal spot price. Policy has an impact on the rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets. After continuous previous declines, rapeseed meal has rebounded at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high - frequency data shows that the supply of Malaysian palm oil continues to decline this month, and exports have increased significantly in the first 25 days. India's cancellation of soybean oil purchase orders may turn to palm oil. Domestically, oil mills are in a shutdown state, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high. Affected by the strengthening of palm oil, rapeseed oil continues to rise, with increased short - term fluctuations, and a short - term bullish approach is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 59 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is - 12 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 297029 lots, down 1269 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 940606 lots, down 29805 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 11889 lots, up 2345 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 217128 lots, up 23127 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 625, unchanged; for rapeseed meal, it is 0, unchanged. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 646.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10226.25 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 7860.97 yuan/ton, up 49.86 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.91, down 0.01. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 790 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 263 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8840 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1280 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 850 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 25.25 million tons, down 2.15 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is not specified in the summary part. The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 0.2 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 27.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. The monthly social consumer retail total of catering revenue is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.85%, down 1.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 13.67%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.37%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.39%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 20.97%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 16.7%, down 0.07% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On January 27, 2026 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed almost flat. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 0.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 646.70 Canadian dollars per ton. South American soybean is expected to have a high yield, and Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvest stage, putting pressure on international soybean prices. However, the US soybean export data has improved, and the US soybean crushing remains strong to meet the demand for soybean oil in the expanding bio - fuel industry. The NOPA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest monthly record, supporting the US soybean market price [2].