瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old chickens culled. The inventory of laying hens has continued to decline from a high level, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. The current enthusiasm for replenishment at the breeding end is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level. Recently, the Spring Festival stocking sentiment has reached its peak, the inventory at each link has decreased, some inventories have been cleared, traders have been more active in purchasing, and the turnover speed has accelerated. Egg prices have risen significantly, and the profits at the breeding end have improved, which has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old chickens and weakened the expectation of inventory decline. From a disk perspective, recently boosted by the continuous rise in spot prices, the disk has also oscillated strongly, but the high inventory pressure has continued to restrict the disk trend and added market volatility. It is recommended to participate mainly in short - term long positions [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active contract for eggs is 3048 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 1; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for eggs is 7248 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 5631; the egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 400 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month decrease of 25; the futures trading volume of the active contract for eggs is 253789 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 7933; the registered warehouse receipt volume for eggs is 27 hands, with a month - on - month increase of 20 [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 4.06 yuan/jin, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06; the basis (spot - futures) is 1016 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 59 [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 109.28, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.75; the national culled laying hen index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 124.98, with a month - on - month increase of 23.8; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas (weekly, yuan/feather) is 3.1, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the national new chick index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 71.99, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.63; the average price of laying hen compound feed (weekly, yuan/kilogram) is 2.84, with no change; the breeding profit of laying hens (weekly, yuan/head) is 0.11, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas (weekly, yuan/kilogram) is 9.06, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28; the age of culled chickens nationwide (monthly, days) is 500, with no change [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.72 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 5.6 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.16 yuan/kilogram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.09; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.07 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.02 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14898.72 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1853.2 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales area is 7210 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 165 [2] Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 8.18 yuan/kilogram, a 0.06 increase from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 7.64 yuan/kilogram, a 0.21 increase from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 8.47 yuan/kilogram, a 0.20 increase from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 8.30 yuan/kilogram, a 0.20 increase from yesterday [2]