瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract was weakly consolidated. In the macro - aspect, at the end of Q4 2025, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 51.95 trillion yuan, with a full - year decrease of 963.6 billion yuan; the balance of real - estate development loans was 13.16 trillion yuan, a full - year decrease of 357.5 billion yuan; the balance of personal housing loans was 37.01 trillion yuan, a full - year decrease of 676.8 billion yuan [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar stopped falling and rebounded, rising to around 2 million tons; the apparent demand declined, and the inventory changed from decreasing to increasing. Overall, during the off - season of consumption, rebar demand continued to shrink, the increase in short positions in the mainstream holdings was greater, and the futures price was under pressure [2]. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan; the position of the RB main contract was 1,744,406 lots, an increase of 29,747 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 82,096 lots, a decrease of 23,693 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 46 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. - The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,283 tons, with no change; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 (Translated as Spot Market) - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight calculation) was 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight calculation) was 3,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight calculation) was 3,430 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight calculation) was 3,160 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract was 157 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 20 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB price) was 1,490 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax) was 2,170 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 167.6285 million tons, an increase of 2.1204 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 419,400 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons [2]. - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.6199 million tons, an increase of 117,900 tons; the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan was 1.562 million tons, an increase of 68,900 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.66%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.53%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.4产业情况 (Translated as Industry Situation) - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.9955 million tons, an increase of 92,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 43.75%, an increase of 2.03 percentage points [2]. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.4898 million tons, an increase of 63,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.0312 million tons, an increase of 77,100 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of steel bars in China was 13.75 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 10.78 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 (Translated as Downstream Situation) - The national real - estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion amount was - 3.80%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion amount was - 17.20%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.5989 billion square meters, a decrease of 38.24 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 53.13 million square meters [2]. - The inventory of unsold commercial housing was 402.36 million square meters, a decrease of 8.75 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On January 28, Cailian Press reporters learned from relevant personnel of multiple real - estate enterprises that their companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real - estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located [2]. - Regarding the first Fed interest - rate decision in 2026 to be announced on Wednesday afternoon US time (early Thursday morning Beijing time), Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed whisperer", wrote on Tuesday that Fed officials are expected not to cut interest rates, and the more difficult question is under what circumstances the Fed will resume interest - rate cuts [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]