瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20260128

Report Summary - Report Date: January 28, 2026 [2] - Report Name: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have decreased significantly. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the SHFE-LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning to the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, while the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. However, policy support in areas such as the automotive industry brings some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, downstream purchases have improved, the spot premium has remained stable, and domestic inventories have decreased. The LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained low. Technically, the increase in positions accompanied by rising prices indicates a strong bullish sentiment. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will adjust strongly, with the attention range at 24,800 - 26,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 25,605 yuan/ton, up 655 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation was 3,351 US dollars/ton, up 8.5 US dollars. The 03 - 04 contract spread of Shanghai zinc was - 5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3] - Positions and Inventories: The total holding volume of Shanghai zinc was 240,242 lots, up 9,625 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 6,021 lots, up 2,805 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 0 tons; the SHFE inventory was 73,151 tons, down 3,160 tons; the LME inventory was 110,550 tons, down 775 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 25,240 yuan/ton, up 480 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 25,630 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan. The base price of the ZN main contract was - 365 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 30.81 US dollars/ton, down 4.38 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 21,580 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - Supply and Demand Balance: The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons [3] - Production and Imports: The global zinc mine output was 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc output was 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons; the zinc ore imports were 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - Imports and Exports: The refined zinc imports were 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc exports were 27,266.66 tons, a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3] - Inventory: The social zinc inventory was 1.122 million tons, an increase of 58,000 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - Production and Sales: The production of galvanized sheets was 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets were 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3] - Related Industries: The new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters; the automobile production was 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production was 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3] 6. Option Market - Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc was 31.62%, up 3.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc was 31.62%, up 3.13 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 23.71%, down 0.02 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 13.81%, up 0.07 percentage points [3] 7. Industry News - In December 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6% year - on - year, achieving the first growth in four years. The supporting role of new industrial drivers was obvious, and the industrial economic development was moving towards the new and the better [3] - The U.S. government shutdown is approaching. Trump talked with the governor of Minnesota and agreed to consider reducing the number of ICE personnel [3] - Fed officials are expected to pause rate cuts this week. Due to inconsistent inflation and employment market data, there are obvious differences among officials on whether and when to continue rate cuts. Before mid - year, if there is to be another rate cut, it is likely to require a significant deterioration in the labor market. It is expected that Fed Governor Milan will continue to vote against at the January meeting, and the voting stance of Waller may receive special attention [3]