有色日报：铝增仓上行明显-20260128

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Today, the copper price opened high and moved higher, regaining the lost ground from last night and standing above the 103,000 mark. The US dollar index remained weak, hitting a low since the second half of 2025. The spot discount of copper slightly narrowed in the morning, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to weaken at the close. The pattern of strong industry expectations and weak reality remained unchanged [6]. - Today, the aluminum price significantly increased with an increase in positions. The positions of Shanghai aluminum increased by nearly 100,000 contracts during the session, and the open interest rose to 810,000 contracts. The weak US dollar index was favorable for non - ferrous metals. Market concerns about the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict significantly disturbing the aluminum product trading end pushed up the aluminum price in the short term. Downstream market sentiment remained wait - and - see, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to weaken [7]. - Today, the nickel price fluctuated, and the open interest decreased. The weak US dollar index was favorable for non - ferrous metals. The port nickel ore inventory seasonally accumulated, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise. The expected supply contraction supported the nickel price, while the weak industry reality pressured it. The nickel price continued to fluctuate [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics Copper - SMM reported that the spot purchasing demand for Shanghai copper slightly increased during the day, and holders were strongly willing to hold prices, causing the spot discount to slightly converge. High copper prices still suppressed downstream consumption, and weak terminal purchases led to continuous accumulation of domestic inventory. The widening spread between contracts under high inventory increased holders' willingness to deliver to warehouses, suppressing the liquidity of the spot market and supporting the repair of spot premiums and discounts. Near the end of the month, the demand for current - month bills declined, and the price of next - month invoices remained firm. The spot discount of Shanghai copper was expected to continue to be under pressure [10]. Aluminum - SMM reported that the core driving factors for the abnormal strengthening of the Shanghai aluminum price were: the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict significantly disturbing the aluminum product trading end; the diversion of funds from the precious metals market to the base metals sector under the background of position limits; and the increasing expectation of production cuts by domestic alumina plants, further boosting the overall market's bullish sentiment [11]. - Deutsche Bank predicted that the copper price would climb to a peak of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter, mainly driven by tightening supply and demand. However, the price might decline in the second half of the year as the production of several major mines gradually recovered. The aluminum price was expected to reach an annual high of $3,100 per ton in the second quarter and then gradually decline from the second half of the year. The average price for the whole year of 2026 was expected to be about $2,925 per ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - The report presented charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单 ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. Aluminum - The report included charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report provided charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][44].