钢材&铁矿石日报2026年1月28日：产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱震荡-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.32%, a decrease in trading volume, and an increase in open interest. Currently, rebar supply is increasing while demand is weak. In the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals continue to weaken. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm sentiment in the commodity market. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated. It recorded a daily decline of 0.39%, with a decrease in trading volume and an increase in open interest. At present, the output of hot - rolled coil has declined, and demand has also weakened. In the situation of double - reduction in supply and demand, the industrial pattern is weakly stable, but the inventory is high, and prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the commodity sentiment is okay. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.70%, an increase in trading volume, and a decrease in open interest. Currently, iron ore inventory is high. Even though overseas supply has a seasonal contraction, the supply pressure remains. The demand for iron ore is weakly stable, and the fundamentals of iron ore are weak. Iron ore prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm sentiment in the commodity market. In the short term, the trend will maintain an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real - estate enterprises are required to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located [7]. - According to the latest production scheduling report of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in February 2026 is 23.79 million units, a 22.1% decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the scheduled production of household air conditioners in February is 11.49 million units, a 31.6% decline compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the scheduled production of refrigerators is 6 million units, a 17% decrease; the scheduled production of washing machines is 6.3 million units, a 3.2% decline [8]. - In December 2025, among key - statistical enterprises, the output of medium - heavy plate rolling mills increased year - on - year, while the output of hot - continuous rolling mills and cold - continuous rolling mills decreased year - on - year. The medium - heavy plate rolling mills produced 6.05 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons or 3.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative production was 76.3 million tons, an increase of 2.97 million tons or 4.1% year - on - year. The hot - continuous rolling mills produced 15.15 million tons in December, a decrease of 1.27 million tons or 7.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative production was 191.92 million tons, remaining flat year - on - year [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The prices in Shanghai (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,210 yuan, in Tianjin is 3,160 yuan, and the national average price is 3,313 yuan. The price changes are - 20 yuan in Shanghai, 0 yuan in Tianjin, and - 2 yuan for the national average [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The prices in Shanghai (4.75mm) is 3,270 yuan, in Tianjin is 3,170 yuan, and the national average price is 3,295 yuan. The price changes are - 10 yuan in Shanghai, 0 yuan in Tianjin, and - 3 yuan for the national average [10]. - Tangshan billet (Q235) price is 2,930 yuan with no change [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) price is 2,130 yuan with no change [10]. - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 60 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,080 yuan. The changes are 10 yuan and - 20 yuan respectively [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port) price is 786 yuan with a decrease of 5 yuan; Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet - basis) price is 780 yuan with no change. The sea freight from Australia is 8.81 yuan and from Brazil is 22.36 yuan, with increases of 0.97 yuan and 0.69 yuan respectively. The SGX swap (current month) price is 105.70 yuan with an increase of 0.08 yuan. The iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 103.35 yuan with no change [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3,123 yuan, with a decline of 0.32%. The highest price is 3,131 yuan, the lowest price is 3,115 yuan, the trading volume is 607,256 lots, a decrease of 66,540 lots compared with the previous period, the open interest is 1,744,406 lots, an increase of 29,747 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3,280 yuan, with a decline of 0.39%. The highest price is 3,290 yuan, the lowest price is 3,275 yuan, the trading volume is 283,776 lots, a decrease of 4,924 lots compared with the previous period, the open interest is 1,517,650 lots, an increase of 9,222 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 783.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.70%. The highest price is 789.5 yuan, the lowest price is 780.5 yuan, the trading volume is 217,818 lots, an increase of 6,074 lots compared with the previous period, the open interest is 564,613 lots, a decrease of 6,440 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel Inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore [16][20][22]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, the inventory of 247 steel mills' iron ore, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate powder [24][25][27]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29][31][35]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand have changed. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 92,500 tons month - on - month, reaching a relatively high level. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the inventory inflection point has reappeared. At the same time, the demand for rebar is weak. The weekly apparent demand has decreased month - on - month, and the high - frequency trading volume is sluggish. Both are at the low levels in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved. The demand continues the seasonal weakness, which drags down the steel price. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Plate steel mills' production is weakly stable. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil has decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month. The supply has slightly shrunk but is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure still exists. At the same time, the demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened. The weekly apparent demand has decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency trading volume is at a low level. The relatively positive factor is that the output of the main downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, but the accumulation of contradictions still needs to be guarded against. The external demand for exports is average, and the demand toughness of hot - rolled coil is expected to weaken. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to be weak, and the inventory is rising at a high level. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has not changed much. The average daily hot - metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills increased slightly last week. In the off - season, the improvement of steel mills' profitability is limited, and the demand for iron ore will continue to be weak. The positive factor is that steel mills are continuously restocking. At the same time, the arrival at ports has continued to decline, but the shipments of overseas miners have increased. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival will be at a low level, and the domestic ore supply has increased. Coupled with the high inventory, the positive effect on the supply side is limited. It is expected that the short - term trend will maintain an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [37].