轻工制造行业快评报告：2025年全国规模以上工业企业利润实现增长，消费品制造业仍然承压

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market by over 10% in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China is projected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year, reaching a total of 739.82 billion yuan. December saw a profit increase of 5.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth rate of 18.4% [2]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector is under pressure, with overall profits declining. However, there are signs of improvement in the furniture and tobacco industries, with profits in these sectors showing marginal recovery [3]. - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors such as food and beverage, gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and home appliances, which are expected to benefit from various market dynamics and consumer trends [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Profit Overview - In 2025, the total revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size is expected to reach 1,391,980.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, although this represents a slowdown compared to previous months [2]. Consumer Goods Manufacturing - The consumer goods manufacturing sector is experiencing overall profit pressure, with only the tobacco and agricultural product processing industries showing positive profit growth of 4.5% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively. Other sectors, including furniture and food manufacturing, have seen profit declines [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on: 1. Food and Beverage: The liquor industry is seen as bottoming out, with low valuations and high dividends supporting stock prices. The market is expected to see an upward turn ahead of financial reports [4]. 2. Gold and Jewelry: Increased geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar are expected to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with prices likely to rise [4]. 3. Cosmetics: There is a growing acceptance of domestic beauty brands among younger consumers, suggesting potential for strong performers in this sector [4]. 4. Home Appliances: Demand is expected to improve due to policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting upgrades [4].