豆类震荡偏强油脂延续强势：豆类日报-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 28, the soybean and oil market continued to be volatile and strong. The price of Soybean No.1 was volatile and strong, temporarily supported by the 5 - day moving average with little change in funds; the price of Soybean No.2 rose by more than 1%, temporarily supported by the 5 - day moving average with an increase of 21,000 lots in positions; the price of soybean meal was volatile and strong, pressured by the 60 - day moving average with little change in funds; the price of rapeseed meal rose by more than 1%, pressured by the 20 - day moving average with a reduction of 30,000 lots in positions. The prices of edible oils were volatile and strong. The price of soybean oil rose by more than 1%, continuing to be strong relying on the 5 - day moving average with little change in funds; the price of palm oil rose by more than 1%, with the moving averages gradually forming a bullish arrangement and little change in funds; the price of rapeseed oil was volatile and strong, hitting the bottom and rebounding, remaining above the 60 - day moving average with little change in funds [5]. - The soybean market showed a pattern of strong overseas and stable domestic markets. The continuous high - temperature and drought in the core producing areas of Argentina led to a key weather premium, threatening soybean and corn yields and driving up the price of US soybean futures. The weakening US dollar index reduced the cost of US - dollar - denominated agricultural products. The domestic market was driven by the strong overseas market, with the futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rising, but the funds were cautious, and the market mainly followed the rise passively. The last round of pre - Spring Festival terminal stocking in the domestic market supported the price and inventory, but downstream buyers mainly executed contracts, and new purchases were light. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased passively. Overall, the domestic soybean meal market showed a situation of passive follow - up with limited increase under the game of overseas cost drive, pre - festival stocking support, and the expectation of loose supply [6]. - The edible oil market continued to be strong. The upcoming release of the US RVO policy supported the price of US soybean oil futures. Palm oil was in a period of multiple positive resonances, including improved supply - demand in the producing areas, favorable demand substitution, policy expectation support, and strong domestic sentiment, and its price continued to be strong. Although the price of rapeseed oil followed the rise, its rebound space was restricted by the uncertainty of China - Canada relations. The domestic edible oil sector entered a policy - sensitive period, and the de - stocking trend of the three major edible oils provided coordinated support for the strong operation of the entire edible oil sector. The decline in domestic soybean oil inventory, combined with the peak - season demand effect and technical buying, was expected to deepen the rebound; the improvement of the fundamental situation of palm oil in the producing areas and the recovery of domestic buying sentiment would further consolidate the strong foundation of palm oil. In the short term, driven by both fundamentals and sentiment, the strong pattern of palm oil prices continued, and it remained the core variety in the edible oil sector [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Although China resumed purchasing US soybeans since the end of October last year, after achieving the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans, it is estimated that China will increase imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of this year. Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high of about 180 million tons, and its price is more competitive. So far this year, the price of Brazilian soybeans has fallen by nearly 9%, while the price of Chicago soybean futures has risen by more than 1% due to Chinese demand. Chinese private oil mills are finalizing purchase contracts for Brazilian soybeans for shipments starting from February. Since the end of October, China has purchased 12 million tons of US soybeans, all by state - owned enterprises. Private buyers have little interest in purchasing US soybeans because of higher tariffs (13% for US soybeans compared to 3% for Brazilian and Argentine soybeans), which makes the cost of purchasing US soybeans significantly higher. According to the Sino - US trade agreement, in addition to purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans in 2025, China will purchase 25 million tons per year from 2026 to 2028 [10]. - Argentina has been experiencing continuous high - temperature and drought, which has put pressure on livestock, soybeans, especially corn crops, and may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 production. The temperature in Argentina has soared to nearly 40 degrees Celsius, and the main agricultural areas are in urgent need of rainfall, which is expected to arrive in February. The heatwave is expected to reduce corn production, especially for early - sown corn. The core agricultural belt needs 70 - 80 mm of rainfall. The sowing of crops is basically completed, with the corn sowing progress at 93.1% and the soybean sowing progress at 96.2% [11]. - Data from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat shows that the export pace of Brazilian soybeans in January 2026 has been significantly higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 23, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans was 1.522 million tons, compared with 1.069 million tons in January 2025. The average daily export volume so far in January is 95,105 tons, a year - on - year increase of 95.7% (144.6% a week ago). The export revenue of soybeans so far in January is 670 million US dollars, compared with 430 million US dollars for the whole of January 2025. The average export price of soybeans so far in January is 438.0 US dollars per ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [11]. - According to the crop progress report released by the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) on January 24, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 6.6%, higher than 2.3% a week ago, 3.2% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 7.0%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso is 19.7%, compared with 6.4% a week ago, 3.6% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 18%. The harvest progress in Paraná is 3%, compared with 2% a week ago, 10% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 6.8% [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Market Prices | Variety | Grade/Indicator | Price (Yuan/ton) | Change from the Previous Day (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean (Dalian) | Imported Second - Class | 3950 | 0 | | Soybean (Average) | —— | 4072 | 0 | | Soybean Meal (Zhangjiagang) | ≥43% | 3120 | 0 | | Soybean Meal (Average) | —— | 3196 | +2 | | Soybean Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Fourth - Grade | 8820 | +110 | | Soybean Oil (Average) | —— | 8781 | +107 | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 24 - degree | 9270 | +100 | | Palm Oil (Average) | —— | 9300 | +100 | | Rapeseed Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Imported Fourth - Grade | 10120 | +40 | | Rapeseed Oil (Average) | —— | 10226 | +40 | [14] 3.3 Oil Mill Pressing Profits | Location | Soybean | Soybean Meal | Soybean Oil | Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Heilongjiang (Domestic) | 4100 | 3340 | 8790 | 40.90 | | Dalian (Domestic) | 4160 | 3220 | 8600 | - 149.90 | | Dalian (Imported) | 3920 | 3220 | 8600 | 81.70 | | Tianjin (Domestic) | 4260 | 3180 | 8280 | - 285.70 | | Tianjin (Imported) | 3940 | 3180 | 8580 | 56.50 | | Shandong (Domestic) | 4400 | 3150 | 8630 | - 440.85 | | Qingdao (Imported) | 3920 | 3150 | 8630 | 62.45 | | Zhangjiagang (Imported) | 3920 | 3120 | 8820 | 62.45 | | Dongguan (Imported) | 3950 | 3120 | 8800 | 32.45 | | Rizhao (Imported) | 3920 | 3120 | 8630 | 62.45 | | Yantai (Imported) | 3920 | 3160 | 8630 | 62.45 | | Zhanjiang (Imported) | 3950 | 3150 | 8800 | 32.45 | | Fangcheng (Imported) | 3950 | 3140 | 8750 | 32.45 | | Qinzhou (Imported) | 3920 | 3140 | 8750 | 32.45 | | Lianyungang (Imported) | 3920 | 3150 | 8820 | 62.45 | | Nanjing (Imported) | 3920 | 3110 | 8840 | 62.45 | [15] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes charts such as soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [16][18][20][22][24][26].