通信行业月报：光模块上游关键物料供应持续紧张，AWS规模部署空芯光纤

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The communication industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in December 2025, with a rise of 12.82% compared to +2.06% for the Shanghai Composite Index [8]. - Key material supply for optical modules remains tight, with major players like Longfei and Hengtong winning bids for China Unicom's hollow-core fiber cable procurement [8]. - The retail sales of communication equipment in China increased by 20.9% year-on-year in December 2025, driven by the demand for smartphones [8]. - The global smartphone shipment is projected to grow by 2% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 1.25 billion units, with AI smartphones expected to penetrate 34% of the market [8]. - The export value of optical modules from China decreased by 15.6% year-on-year in 2025, while Thailand's communication equipment exports surged by 152.1% [8]. - The capital expenditure of major North American cloud providers reached $112.43 billion in Q3 2025, a 76.9% increase year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The communication industry index rose by 12.82% in December 2025, outperforming major indices [14]. - Various sub-sectors within the communication industry saw significant gains, with cable and network connection sectors increasing by 22.05% and 19.44% respectively [15]. Industry Tracking - The global ICT market is expected to grow from $5.9 trillion in 2025 to $7.6 trillion by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.0% [39]. - The Chinese enterprise ICT market is projected to reach approximately $314.7 billion in 2025, growing at a rate of 14.3% year-on-year [39]. - The telecom business revenue in China reached 1.6096 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a 0.9% year-on-year increase [48]. Telecom Industry Insights - As of November 2025, the number of 5G mobile phone users in China reached 1.193 billion, accounting for 65.3% of total mobile users [49]. - The number of fixed broadband users with gigabit access reached 239 million, representing 34.3% of total broadband users [52]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in optical chips, optical devices, and optical modules, such as SourceJ, Shijia Photon, and Tianfu Communication [9]. - It also highlights the potential of AI smartphones and telecom operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom as key investment opportunities [9].