有色贵金属海外流动性再收紧，铜价短期难突破

Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The price of the LME copper main contract rose slightly from $13,128.5 per ton on January 26, 2026, to $13,183.0 per ton on January 27, 2026. In terms of basis, the LME (0 - 3) backwardation deepened from -$66.06 per ton to -$71.07 per ton, indicating a weakening basis. The spot premiums and discounts of domestic copper, such as premium copper and flat - copper, deepened, showing pressure in the spot market [54]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The open interest of LME copper increased by 7,465 lots to 332,992 lots on January 26, 2026, indicating increased market participation [55]. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The supply side has improved. Global mining companies are using new technologies such as bio - leaching to extract copper, alleviating supply constraints. China's recycled copper imports reached 239,000 tons in December 2025, with Ningbo Customs having the highest import volume. The LME and SHFE inventories decreased slightly [57]. - Demand Side: The demand side is weak. High copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption, leading to reduced demand in sectors such as power and construction. Domestic inventories have accumulated, and the spot discount is difficult to repair [58]. - Inventory Side: The LME inventory decreased from 146,793 tons on January 26, 2026, to 145,314 tons on January 27, 2026, and the SHFE inventory decreased from 171,700 tons to 170,525 tons. However, the overall inventory level is high, and the widening contango encourages holders to deliver to the warehouse [58]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to be under pressure, mainly driven by the improvement on the supply side, the weakness on the demand side, and the bearish macro - sentiment. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of $13,000 - $13,300 per ton [59].