玻璃日报：短期震荡-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price may fluctuate. However, there is a possibility of continued pressure and decline in the later period. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情 Review - Futures market: The glass main contract fluctuated intraday, closing with a doji. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a narrowing pattern, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart, and the support was near the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume decreased by 176,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 59 lots. The intraday high was 1076, the low was 1054, and the closing price was 1067, down 6 yuan/ton (0.56%) from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: In North China, overall shipments were good, and prices of some specifications were raised; in East China, the trading atmosphere was average, and downstream buyers mainly purchased based on rigid demand; in Central China, most enterprises kept prices stable, while a few raised prices, and downstream buyers were rational in purchasing; in South China, most enterprises maintained stable prices, except for a few with large inventories offering discounts [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1010, with a basis of - 57 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry average operating rate was 71.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%. There were no production line water - discharges or ignitions this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 203,000 weight boxes (0.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days in terms of conversion were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. This week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was average, and the shipments of some enterprises were weak due to weather, resulting in an overall increase in inventory compared with the previous period [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approached, the order trends of deep - processing enterprises in the north and south regions diverged. The executable order days in the south increased slightly, with some orders lasting more than 20 days, while the orders in the north and central regions declined [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, long - term losses of glass production lines are accelerating the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans for some production lines to undergo cold - repair before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to contract further. However, this month, both real - estate development investment and capital availability continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction were weak, with no improvement in real - estate demand. In general, the pre - festival stocking expectations of downstream enterprises and the anti - involution sentiment provide short - term support to the market, but the supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been substantially improved [4]