沥青日报：震荡上行-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage. The supply is affected by the limited inflow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil, and the demand will further slow down due to the end of construction projects. The price of Venezuelan oil in Asia has risen, and the supply of asphalt at the end of the month is tight [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Some local refineries in Shandong stopped asphalt production this week, and the asphalt operating rate remained low [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. With the decrease in temperature, road construction in the north is gradually ending, and rigid demand will further slow down. Southern projects are also gradually entering the final stage [1]. - Inventory: The inventory rate of asphalt refineries decreased slightly week - on - week and is still near the lowest level in recent years. As of the week of January 23, the inventory rate of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% compared with the week of January 16 [1][4]. - Price: The price of asphalt in Shandong increased slightly, and the basis is at a relatively low level. The price of Venezuelan oil sold in Asia has risen, and the supply of asphalt at the end of the month is tight [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 3.96% to 3410 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3266 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3430 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 11,938 to 175,279 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract remained at - 200 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply - related indicators: Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From January to November, the investment in national highway construction decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry from January to December was - 6.0%, continuing to decline from - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, continuing to decline from - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4]. - Demand - related indicators: As of the week of January 23, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November, and the recovery of the medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [4]. - Inventory indicators: As of the week of January 23, the inventory rate of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% compared with the week of January 16, and the inventory rate of asphalt refineries was near the lowest level in recent years [4].