沪铜日报：美元下挫，整体偏强-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to experience short - term high - level oscillations. The significant decline in the US dollar index boosts the non - ferrous metal market, but the downstream acceptance remains unknown. Attention should be paid to the callback opportunities caused by insufficient spot follow - up. The supply side may improve marginally as the inventory structure imbalance caused by copper tariffs globally may be alleviated [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Side - On Thursday, Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile was shut down due to a strike. The mine's expected cathode copper output in 2025 is 29,000 - 32,000 tons. TC/RC fees are weakly stable with a further downward trend, and the market's view on supply - side tightness remains unchanged. SMM predicts that the domestic electrolytic copper output in January will decrease by 14,500 tons (a 1.23% decline) month - on - month and increase by 156,300 tons (a 14.78% increase) year - on - year [1] - As of January 26, the spot smelting fee (TC) is - 50 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 5.18 cents per pound [8] 3.2 Demand Side - As of December 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. Near the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, most small and medium - sized enterprises have started their holidays, resulting in low procurement willingness for raw materials. The new - energy vehicle sector has shown poor performance, while traditional industries such as refrigerators and air - conditioners have seen a slight increase [1] 3.3 Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, showing strength during the day [3] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 260 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 235 yuan/ton. On January 27, 2026, the LME official price is 13,038 dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 58 dollars/ton [3] 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 148,000 tons, an increase of 3,130 tons from the previous period. As of January 26, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 100,300 tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 172,400 tons, an increase of 1,825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 568,900 short tons, an increase of 3,040 short tons from the previous period [12]