芳烃日报：上行势头放缓，谨防回调风险-20260128

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious bullish view on pure benzene and styrene, suggesting waiting for low - buying opportunities after a pullback, but also warning of the risk of a pullback [5]. 2) Core View - The upward momentum of aromatics has slowed, and there is a need to guard against the risk of a pullback. The prices of pure benzene and styrene have risen significantly, and with subsequent partial device resumptions and high inventory of pure benzene, a pullback may occur [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of January 22, the overall output of Chinese styrene plants was 349,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons or 1.72%. The plant capacity utilization rate was 69.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.23%. Overall losses were greater than increments, leading to a decline in output [1]. - As of the week of January 22, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.71%, a week - on - week increase of 4.66%. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing the rise, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1]. - The PS capacity utilization rate was 57.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. The industry supply was temporarily stable, the total supply was flat, the market shipments were average, and the inventory started to rise [1]. - The ABS capacity utilization rate was 66.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 3%. Manufacturers' supply was still very tight, mainly controlling shipments. After the holiday, market inquiries increased, trading volume expanded, and prices rebounded. The UPR capacity utilization rate was 38%, a week - on - week decrease of 1%; the butadiene - styrene rubber operation rate was 82.92%, remaining stable week - on - week [2]. Macroeconomic Analysis - In recent days, a large - scale winter storm has swept across many parts of the United States, with 24 states and Washington, D.C. declaring a state of emergency, and 7 deaths reported due to the cold weather [3]. - The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has arrived in the Middle East, and Iran has warned the United States that it will attack U.S. aircraft carriers if subjected to military strikes [3]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene and styrene strengthened slightly during the day. The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and port inventories have started to decline from high levels. There are opportunities for low - buying after a pullback, but the risk of a pullback should be guarded against [5].