农产品日报-20260128

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The domestic soybean market is tight in supply, with marginal improvement in demand expected during the festival. The re - inflation trading of commodities has an overflow effect on soybeans. Short - term focus on policies and market sentiment [2]. - Affected by the weakening dollar, US soybeans are running strongly. After the South American bumper harvest expectation becomes the main trading logic, the market has digested it in the short - term. The pressure on US soybeans/Dalian soybean meal may increase after the large - scale harvest of Brazilian soybeans in late February. The import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - shock pattern [3]. - Soybean oil continues to increase positions, palm oil reduces positions, the oil - tank ratio rises strongly, the soybean - palm oil spread falls, and palm oil is stronger. The supply - demand of palm oil is improving, and Indonesia's plantation nationalization policy is beneficial to enhance policy pricing power. The rise of RIN price in US soybean oil is beneficial to the profit of the US biodiesel industry. The re - inflation trading of commodities has an overflow effect on soybean oil and palm oil. The El Nino probability in summer 2026 is high, which is beneficial to the strong performance of oils [4]. - The domestic rapeseed market rises slightly, with rapeseed meal slightly stronger than rapeseed oil. The inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills remains unchanged, and Australian rapeseed has not been crushed. The market uncertainty lies in the import end. The rapeseed market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may rise slowly [6]. - The spot price of corn in the north and north ports is weak, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices rise. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate in the short - term [7]. - Live hogs continue to hit new lows, and the spot price is weak. After the second - fattening before the Spring Festival ends, the industry will face accelerated slaughter. The high points of live hog futures and spot prices have passed, and the pig price is expected to hit a low in the first half of next year [8]. - Egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and most spot prices continue to rise. There is a risk of spot price weakening due to the weakening of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the post - Spring Festival consumption off - season. In the long - term, the low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will lead to a continuous decline in the inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026, and the egg price is expected to strengthen after the off - season. The strong spot price since January is not conducive to the strengthening of the 2026 far - month futures price [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract is strong, with prices fluctuating at a high level. The spot market is stable, with tight supply but marginal improvement from policy auctions. Demand may improve marginally during the festival, and the re - inflation of commodities has an impact [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the weak dollar, US soybeans are strong. The South American bumper harvest expectation has been digested. Brazil's January soybean export is expected to be 323 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Pay attention to the Brazilian soybean harvest and the impact of Canadian rapeseed imports on domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - shock [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean oil increases positions, palm oil reduces positions, the oil - tank ratio rises, and the soybean - palm oil spread falls. Palm oil's supply - demand improves, and Indonesia's policy is beneficial. The rise of RIN price in US soybean oil is beneficial to its price. The re - inflation of commodities has an impact, and the El Nino in 2026 is beneficial to oils [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market rises slightly, with rapeseed meal slightly stronger. The inventory of rapeseed in coastal oil mills remains unchanged, and Australian rapeseed has not been crushed. The market uncertainty lies in the import end, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a slow rise in the price center [6]. Corn - The spot price of corn in the north and north ports is weak, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices rise. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate in the short - term [7]. Live Hogs - Live hogs continue to hit new lows, and the spot price is weak. After the second - fattening before the Spring Festival ends, the industry will face accelerated slaughter. The high points of live hog futures and spot prices have passed, and the pig price is expected to hit a low in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - Egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and most spot prices continue to rise. There is a risk of spot price weakening due to the weakening of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand and the post - Spring Festival consumption off - season. In the long - term, the low replenishment in the second half of 2025 will lead to a continuous decline in the inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026, and the egg price is expected to strengthen after the off - season. The strong spot price since January is not conducive to the strengthening of the 2026 far - month futures price [9].