【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Low valuation, cold weather, and the Iran geopolitical situation have improved the sentiment in the chemical sector. PP will follow the market sentiment and show a strong and volatile trend in the short term. However, the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, the spot market follow - up is limited, and the basis has declined. Caution should be exercised regarding the sustainability of the PP rebound. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate rebounded 0.34 percentage points to 52.87%, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased 0.56 percentage points to 42.04%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 28, new maintenance devices such as the first line of Dushanzi Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 27%. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly and is currently at a low level in the same period in recent years. Cold weather has boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns, and combined with the escalating Iran geopolitical situation, crude oil prices have risen. There has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving has continued to decline, and new orders are limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward. The lowest price was 6,697 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,808 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,778 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.30%. The open interest increased by 17,453 lots to 543,384 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions rose. Drawstring was reported at 6,400 - 6,830 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 28, new maintenance devices such as the first line of Dushanzi Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 27% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate rebounded 0.34 percentage points to 52.87%, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased 0.56 percentage points to 42.04%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 450,000 tons, 110,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly and is currently at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $67 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $820 per ton [6].