【冠通期货研究报告】热卷日报：震荡偏弱-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is "Bullish in the short - term" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting while the demand is resilient, with an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. The social inventory is decreasing on a week - on - week basis, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable, with the overall inventory risk marginally improving. However, the inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. The market needs to focus on the impact of the post - holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices, and subsequent attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Currently, the macro - economic easing expectations and the pre - holiday weak demand are in a tug - of - war, with cautious market sentiment and low volatility. The technical support level is around last week's low, and a bullish view is maintained [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 9,222 lots, with a trading volume of 283,776 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, the high was 3,290 yuan, showing a weak intraday oscillation. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5 - day moving average and was near the 30 - day moving average, closing at 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.39% [1] - Spot Price: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 0 yuan, showing a near - flat price relationship [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons compared to the previous week to 3.0541 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 172,300 tons. The output decline reflects that steel mills' capacity release has converged, possibly affected by maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - Demand: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons compared to the previous week to 3.0996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 73,900 tons. Although the demand has slightly declined on a week - on - week basis, it has maintained growth on a year - on - year basis. Pre - holiday stockpiling supports demand, and the overall demand is resilient [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons compared to the previous week to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week - on - week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons), a year - on - year increase of 212,700 tons (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory has decreased on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory pressure has been marginally relieved. The year - on - year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of the start of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6] - Bearish Factors: Steel mills' resumption of production in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]