【冠通期货研究报告】铁矿日报：现货价格持稳，港口成交转弱-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The iron ore fundamentals show a decrease in arrivals, a slight relief in supply pressure, stable rigid demand on the demand side, and the inventory in ports is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. Although the futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and the futures are at a discount, showing a short - term weakness, the overall downside space may be limited [5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate slightly weaker during the day, closing at 783 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.63% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 218,000 lots, the open interest was 565,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.726 billion yuan. The futures market is short - term weak [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 2 to 794 yuan/ton, Super Special powder dropped 2 to 672 yuan/ton, and the main swap was 102.9 (-0.7) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 828.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 45.1 yuan/ton, and the basis widened slightly. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 18.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis, being short - term weak with limited downside space [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased slightly, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to arrivals. There were expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather. On the demand side, the molten iron production increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills were in the process of restocking but with weak enthusiasm. The inventory in ports continued to accumulate, and the inventory in steel mills was still significantly lower than the historical average, with the total inventory pressure still building up [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic macro: This week continued the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The domestic demand recovery rhythm was still slow, consumption and investment had not formed an effective resonance, and exports could not offset the lack of domestic demand. The price level remained low, and the improvement in the upstream could not be effectively transmitted to the downstream. Credit repair mainly relied on the government and policy tools, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The policy was in the observation and verification window, and the previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The improvement in physical work volume and demand was more likely to be concentrated in the first quarter. The short - term domestic fundamentals had limited direct support for risk assets, and the macro - environment was mainly for bottom - support [4] - Overseas macro: This week's logic revolved around the marginal weakening of demand, the slow decline of inflation, and the increasing policy uncertainty. US consumption was still resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down, the savings rate was at a low level, and consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, with the internal kinetic energy weakening [4]