焦炭日报：短期延续反弹-20260128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply and demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. The comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and the overall supply and demand is weak. Downstream steel mills have announced shutdown and maintenance plans for the Spring Festival, and the pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking losses have further expanded, and coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. With a generally warm macro - atmosphere and frequent fiscal and monetary policy news, there are still policy expectations. Overall, the market will fluctuate widely, continue to rebound in the short term, and should be treated with a low - buying mindset [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 23, affected by the expanding losses, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized enterprises declined. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 0.36 tons to 81.45 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 15.14 tons to 1012.35 tons, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 4% [1] - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 66 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 51 yuan/ton, in Shandong was - 8 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 103 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - Terminal demand maintained off - season characteristics. Although the profits of steel mills rebounded slightly, the overall enthusiasm for resuming production on the supply side was still limited. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 78.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 percentage points. The profitability rate increased by 0.86 percentage points to 40.69% compared with last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly rebounded to 85.51%, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - This week, the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1177.71 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased to 803.24 tons, and the inventory of imported coking coal at ports continued to increase to 562.99 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2818.34 tons, still 15.87% lower year - on - year [2] News - Yijinhuoluoqi Mine Safety Supervision Bureau: Inner Mongolia Danmengde Coal Industry Co., Ltd. was ordered to suspend production for rectification [2] - Mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market and some steel mills in the Xingtai area plan to raise the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on January 30, 2026 [2]