PVC日报：震荡运行-20260128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The PVC market is oscillating. The supply - side PVC operating rate has slightly decreased, the downstream active stocking willingness is low, the export has increased but with growing transaction resistance, the social inventory is still high, and the real - estate market is in adjustment, so PVC lacks upward driving force for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情分析 - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream is having pre - holiday promotions, with the downstream operating rate increasing by 0.95 percentage points, but the downstream's willingness to actively stock up is low [1]. - Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there is a rush to export, and PVC export orders have increased significantly. However, as export prices rise, transaction resistance increases. With the cold wave in the US, domestic export orders continue to increase slightly. The export price of Formosa Plastics' PVC in February has risen by $40/ton [1]. - The social inventory continued to increase last week and is still high, with great inventory pressure. The real - estate market is in adjustment, and indicators such as investment, new construction, and completion areas have large year - on - year declines. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded but is still at the lowest level in recent years [1]. - The chemical sector sentiment is boosted, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure. Some production enterprises' operating expectations are decreasing, but the production decline is limited. The operating rate of PVC has changed little, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC, and with the Spring Festival approaching, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and PVC lacks upward driving force [1]. 期现行情 - The PVC2605 contract oscillated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 4,882 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,939 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,913 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.32%. The position volume decreased by 20,469 lots to 1,039,839 lots [2]. - On January 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,695 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,913 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 218 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3]. 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, affected by enterprises like Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) had a trial production in December 2025 [4]. - On the demand side, the real - estate market is in adjustment. From January to December 2025, national real - estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. Indicators such as sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all had year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 25, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% week - on - week, being near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - As of the week of January 22, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% week - on - week to 1.1775 million tons, 57.01% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still high [6].