银河期货航运日报-20260128

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report focusing on container shipping, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Due to the slowdown of spot rate adjustment and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the EC market showed a volatile and upward trend today However, the spot freight rate is currently in a downward phase during the off - season, and the rush - shipping effect of export tax rebates is less than expected, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend The 04 contract has a discount, and attention should be paid to the subsequent spot situation [6] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On the spot freight rate side, prices of various shipping companies have decreased to different extents The demand is in a downward phase after reaching a peak, and the supply of shipping capacity in January has decreased slightly compared to last week Geopolitical tensions remain high, and it is still difficult for a large - scale resumption of European routes in the first half of the year [7] Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Due to many short - term disturbances in the 04 contract, differences in the rush - shipping volume, and unresolved risks in the Iranian situation, short - wave fluctuations are expected to be large It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8] - Arbitrage: Continue to hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread long position [9] Group 5: Industry News - The UK Prime Minister will visit China from January 28th to 31st, and the two sides plan to sign trade and investment cooperation documents [10][11] - The US has sent a naval fleet towards Iran, but hopes not to use force [11] - Iran has achieved full - scale intelligent control of the Strait of Hormuz and can decide the passage of ships [11] Group 6: Data Summary Futures Market Data (January 28, 2026) | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (Lots) | Volume Change Rate | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1,719.0 | 1.5 | 0.09% | 370.0 | - 62.40% | 3,186.0 | - 8.84% | | EC2604 | 1,229.0 | 35.1 | 2.94% | 38,983.0 | 55.66% | 40,146.0 | 3.88% | | EC2606 | 1,493.2 | 51.0 | 3.54% | 4,954.0 | 93.06% | 9,602.0 | 21.36% | | EC2608 | 1,560.8 | 32.4 | 2.12% | 577.0 | 132.66% | 1,549.0 | 4.52% | | EC2610 | 1,135.1 | 23.1 | 2.08% | 1,747 | 72.97% | 8,722 | 2.48% | | EC2612 | 1,403.1 | 28.4 | 2.07% | 129 | 460.87% | 135 | 9.76% | [4] Container Freight Rates (Weekly) | Container Freight Index | Price | Week - on - Week Change Rate | Year - on - Year Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS European Line (Points) | 1859.31 | - 4.86% | - 24.61% | | SCFIS US West Line (Points) | 1294.32 | - 0.84% | - 51.19% | | SCFI: Composite Index | 1457.86 | - 7.39% | - 36.36% | | SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) | 3141 | - 10.60% | - 28.81% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US West (USD/FEU) | 2084 | - 5.01% | - 55.49% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US East (USD/FEU) | 2896 | - 8.50% | - 53.51% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Europe (USD/TEU) | 1595 | - 4.83% | - 34.63% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Mediterranean (USD/TEU) | 2756 | - 7.61% | - 20.74% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Persian Gulf (USD/TEU) | 1288 | - 23.97% | - 7.80% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Melbourne (USD/TEU) | 1029 | - 10.60% | - 44.02% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kansai (USD/TEU) | 312 | 0.00% | 2.30% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kanto (USD/TEU) | 321 | 0.00% | 4.22% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Southeast Asia (USD/TEU) | 496 | - 3.69% | - 12.06% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Africa (USD/TEU) | 2144 | - 1.60% | - 37.03% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South America (USD/TEU) | 1153 | - 3.51% | - 75.13% | | SCFI: Shanghai - South Korea (USD/TEU) | 144 | 0.00% | 3.60% | [4] Fuel Costs | Crude Oil Type | Price (USD/Barrel) | Week - on - Week Change Rate | Year - on - Year Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil (Near - Month) | 62.24 | 2.64% | - 14.07% | | Brent Crude Oil (Near - Month) | 66.76 | 2.87% | - 12.4% | [4]