规模、影响及历史经验：存款搬家详解

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current round of deposit relocation discussion is the result of multiple factors. Although there are concerns in the market, there is no obvious outflow pressure at the data level so far. The relocation of corporate deposits has been evident since April 2024, with limited marginal impact, while there is no need to worry too much about the relocation of household deposits for now. Strong market changes are usually required to trigger obvious deposit relocation [2][3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalog I. What is deposit relocation? How large is the scale? - Driving factors: Since 2017, residents' defensive savings motivation has increased; since 2022, deposit rates have been lowered multiple times; in April 2024, the "manual interest subsidy" was stopped; the stock market has performed well in 2024 - 2025; and a large number of time deposits from 2022 - 2023 will mature in 2025 - 2026 [10] - Current situation: Since 2024, corporate deposit growth has declined significantly, while household deposit growth has remained relatively stable. Deposit relocation mainly refers to the transfer of general deposits to other assets, and the relocation of corporate deposits has affected the demand - side structure of the bond market [14][16] - Scale assessment: In the medium - to - long - term, deposit relocation depends on excess deposits. In the short - term, it depends on the maturity volume of high - interest time deposits. Based on the data of 15 listed national and joint - stock banks, the estimated national bank time deposit maturity volumes from 2024 to 2026 are 83.4 trillion yuan, 96.0 trillion yuan, and 110.6 trillion yuan respectively, with high - interest time deposit maturity volumes of 26.8 trillion yuan, 31.7 trillion yuan, and 33.5 trillion yuan respectively [18][31] II. How to observe deposit relocation? - Residents/enterprises deposit growth: Observe the growth rate changes of residents' and enterprises' deposits and their growth rates relative to M2, and combine with banks' actions to supplement liquidity. For example, when the growth rate of corporate deposits declined in April 2024, the net financing of certificates of deposit increased significantly [35] - Macro cross - sectoral capital flows: The scale and growth rate of non - bank deposits are the most direct indicators. In 2025, non - bank deposits increased significantly year - on - year, and the increase in securities margin in non - bank deposits may be large [42] - Terminal asset market indicators: Observe the expansion of bank wealth management and public fund scales, as well as capital market activity indicators such as A - share trading volume, margin trading balance, and new account openings [50] III. Insights from the review of historical household deposit relocations - Five rounds of obvious and continuous household deposit relocations since 2005: They occurred in 2006 - 2007, 2009 - 2010, 2011, 2013 - 2015, and 2016 - 2018, respectively. The triggering factors mainly include the improvement of stock market profitability, the relaxation cycle of the real estate market, and the increase in the attractiveness of asset management products [5][56] - Conclusion: There is no need to be overly worried about the current round of deposit relocation. The relocation of corporate deposits has been gradually digested, and the scale of household deposit relocation is not large. Future attention should be paid to the rise of the stock market and the income changes of asset management products caused by bond market fluctuations [65]