养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260128

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend, with low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast stabilizing and high - protein soybeans in short supply. The 100% bid - ask success rate of CGSGB's soybean transactions shows market demand support [1] - Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. If there is a significant decline, it can be considered for buying at low prices. In the Northeast, farmers' selling has increased, while feed and deep - processing plants have increased their inventory [1] - In the first half of 2026, the inventory of laying hens is expected to decline monthly, with the largest decline in March and April. Due to a marginal increase in inventory compared to the second half of last year, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] - The de - capacity of the pig industry is still ongoing. The supply of live pigs around the Spring Festival is expected to be large, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [3] 3. Key Points by Commodity Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast are stable, with tight supply and limited trading. High - protein soybeans are in short supply, with 39% protein content soybeans priced around 2.2 yuan per catty. CGSGB's soybean bid - ask success rate was 100% for 24,099 tons, indicating market demand support, and a moderately strong and volatile trend is expected [1] Corn - In the Northeast, farmers' selling has increased after the twelfth lunar month. Feed and deep - processing plants have a rigid demand for pre - holiday stocking, and some have increased their purchasing enthusiasm. However, due to the high price of dry corn, the inventory days of mainstream plants have increased to over 30 days. A wide - range pre - holiday fluctuation is expected, and buying at low prices can be considered if there is a significant decline [1] Egg - Based on chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly in the first half of 2026, with the largest decline in March and April due to low replenishment and accelerated old - hen culling. The decline will narrow in May as the industry enters a supply - demand adjustment period. Excessive short - selling is not recommended due to a marginal increase in inventory [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and 101.6% of the normal level. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. The year - end inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The de - capacity is ongoing, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously around the Spring Festival. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and sow numbers [2][3]