热卷日报：震荡偏弱-20260128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on hot-rolled coils [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting while demand is resilient, resulting in an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre-holiday winter stocking is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of total inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on mill inventory is controllable, with the overall inventory risk improving marginally but still relatively high year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. In summary, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support prices, and subsequent attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery. Currently, the market sentiment is cautious with low volatility due to the tug-of-war between macro loose expectations and pre-holiday weak demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Wednesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 9,222 lots, with a trading volume of 283,776 lots, which was lower than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, and the high was 3,290 yuan. It showed a weak intraday oscillation, breaking below the 5-day moving average in the short term and closing at 3,280 yuan/ton near the 30-day moving average, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.39% [1] - Spot Price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 0 yuan, basically at par [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22nd, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decline may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [3] - Demand: As of January 22nd, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. Although demand declined slightly month-on-month, it maintained year-on-year growth. Pre-holiday stocking supported demand, indicating strong overall demand resilience [3] - Inventory: As of January 22nd, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week-on-week to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week-on-week, and mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). Year-on-year, the total inventory increased by 212,700 tons (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The month-on-month decrease in total inventory alleviated inventory pressure marginally, while the year-on-year increase indicated that the inventory accumulation rate this year was slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk was controllable [3] - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses will cause short-term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put downward pressure on prices. In the long term, they will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a positive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the macro aspect, and listed in - depth rectification of involution - type competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are also being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Decrease in supply output, expectation of winter storage demand start, export rush, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5] - Bearish Factors: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]