农产品：农批龙头价值回归，稳健中兼具成长性-20260128

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the agricultural wholesale market, with substantial asset value and a market share exceeding 10% in China, maintaining an annual transaction volume of over 360 billion yuan and a transaction weight of over 36 million tons [1][13] - The company has demonstrated strong growth potential, with a projected revenue CAGR of 16.07% and a net profit CAGR of 44.18% from 2018 to 2024 [1][14] - The company is expanding its integrated supply chain, enhancing its operational efficiency and exploring new growth opportunities through initiatives like "Deep Agricultural Kitchen" and import-export trade [2][3] Company Overview - The company operates 35 wholesale markets across more than 20 major cities, forming a nationwide layout and extending its reach to agricultural bases covering approximately 440,000 acres [2][42] - The company has a stable shareholder structure, with Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission holding 38.67% and the second-largest shareholder, Life Insurance, holding 25.62% [1][32] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 5.63 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5%, while the net profit was 384 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 14.4% [5][14] - The forecast for 2025 anticipates revenues of 7.68 billion yuan and a net profit of 415 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 36.5% and 8.1%, respectively [3][5] Market Position - The company has maintained a strong profitability status, with 72% of its subsidiaries and joint ventures achieving profitability in 2024 [2][43] - The company’s operational model includes a mix of rental income, commissions, and management fees, with the agricultural market operations contributing significantly to its revenue [18][19] Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain capabilities and expanding its market presence through strategic projects and partnerships [41][42] - The introduction of employee stock ownership plans in 2024 aims to broaden the incentive structure, covering 260 key personnel compared to 44 in 2021 [37][39]