East Money Securities·2026-01-28 13:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in energy construction, actively transitioning towards new energy systems, focusing on hydrogen and energy storage [4][27] - The company has a robust order backlog, with total orders amounting to 28,135 billion yuan, approximately six times its expected revenue for 2024 [4][21] - The new energy sector is expected to grow significantly, with the company projecting a 6.7% increase in new energy contract value for 2025 [4][25] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Performance - The company, China Energy Construction (601868), is a global leader in energy infrastructure, with a strong presence in traditional energy sectors and a significant market share in hydropower [13] - Revenue has shown steady growth, increasing from 183.82 billion yuan in 2014 to 436.71 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.0% [19] - The company reported a revenue of 3,235.44 million yuan and a net profit of 315.6 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.6% in revenue but a decline of 12.4% in net profit [19] 2. New Energy System Development - The importance of new energy systems is increasing, driven by national energy security and carbon neutrality goals [28][31] - The company is strategically investing in hydrogen and energy storage, with significant policy support and a growing market for hydrogen applications across various industries [41][50] - By 2035, China's clean energy generation capacity is expected to reach 3.6 billion kilowatts, with a substantial increase in hydrogen production projects [41][47] 3. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 85.2 billion yuan, 93.6 billion yuan, and 100.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating growth rates of 1.4%, 9.9%, and 7.0% [5][6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026 are 12.14, 11.05, and 10.33 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, suggesting a potential valuation uplift as the new energy transition progresses [5][6]