粕类日报：天气扰动增加，粕类继续偏强-20260128

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Meal Daily Report" [1] - Date: January 28, 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Researcher Information - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Futures practice certificate number: F3045719 [2] - Investment consulting certificate number: Z0015458 [2] - Contact information: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal: Futures prices in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao showed increases; spot basis decreased by 10 in different regions [3] - For rapeseed meal: Futures prices in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi showed increases; spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi increased by 4, while in Nantong it decreased by 26 [3] Monthly Spread - For soybean meal: 15 - spread decreased by 3, 59 - spread decreased by 8, 91 - spread increased by 11 [3] - For rapeseed meal: 15 - spread decreased by 15, 59 - spread increased by 10, 91 - spread increased by 5 [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spread - Bean - rapeseed 01 spread increased slightly, bean - rapeseed 09 spread increased, and oil - meal ratio 01 also increased slightly [3] Spot Spread - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 6, the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal increased by 30, and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased by 6 [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market was strong due to dry weather after a short - term decline; South American market quotes rose slightly; the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets were also strong; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed; the near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, while that of rapeseed meal was strong [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - US soybean: Carry - over stocks were raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate of 292 million bushels; quarterly grain stocks were also bearish, reaching 3.29 billion bushels, higher than the market estimate of 3.25 billion bushels; exports improved, but the supply - demand was still relatively loose [4] - South American market: Brazil's new crop was in good condition; exports were expected to increase, but it was subject to actual yield changes; Argentina's soybean exports and crushing increased [4] Domestic Market - Soybean meal: The domestic spot supply tightened; the oil mill operating rate increased but the overall quantity decreased; the inventory decreased; the market transaction increased; the demand was good; as of January 23, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.1021 million tons, the operating rate was 57.83%, the soybean inventory was 6.5899 million tons, a decrease of 4.12% from last week and an increase of 45.8% year - on - year; the soybean meal inventory was 898,600 tons, a decrease of 5.13% from last week and an increase of 104.55% year - on - year [7] - Rapeseed meal: The demand weakened; the oil mill operation basically stopped; the rapeseed supply was low; the granular rapeseed meal inventory was still high; as of January 23, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas was 60,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from last week [7] Group 6: Logic Analysis - US soybean: High inventory pressure and high South American production, but the downward speed may slow down due to improved demand [8] - Brazil: Good weather, increased production forecast, and price pressure [8] - Argentina: Strong due to dry weather, but the driving effect may be limited [8] - Domestic market: Uncertainty in soybean supply, support in the spot market, limited upside space; in the long - term, the supply is loose and there is price pressure [8] - Rapeseed meal: High import price, expected pressure after increased supply, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen, but the South American weather may support the price [8] - Spread: The near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, and that of rapeseed meal was strong [8] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Limited upside space, suggest short - term observation and short - selling at high points [9] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [9] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [9] Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazil showed different changes in different shipping months, with some decreases and some increases [10]