Leaderdrive(SH:688017) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2026-01-28 15:01Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 258.92 RMB based on a PE of 230 for 2026 [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as the leading domestic manufacturer of harmonic reducers, with a market share expected to reach 12% globally by 2024, making it the second largest worldwide and the largest in China [1][12]. - The recovery of the company's fundamentals and the domestic substitution trend are expected to drive growth in its core business, particularly in the harmonic reducer sector, which is seeing increased demand from the industrial robot market [1][2]. - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to experience rapid growth, with the company poised to benefit significantly due to its strong position in the harmonic reducer segment [2][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Leading Harmonic Reducer Leader, Core Business Rapid Recovery - The company, established in 2011, specializes in precision transmission devices, including harmonic reducers, and has broken the monopoly of international brands in the domestic market [12]. - The company has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.9% in revenue from 2017 to 2024, with a notable recovery expected in 2025 due to the resurgence of demand in the industrial robot sector [14][18]. 2. Humanoid Robots Expected to Open Strong Demand for Harmonic Reducers - The harmonic reducer is a core component for robots, with significant demand expected as humanoid robots gain traction in the market [29][58]. - The report highlights that the integration of AI technology and investments from major tech companies like Tesla are likely to accelerate the development of humanoid robots, creating substantial opportunities for the company [2][58]. 3. Technology and Cost Leadership, Equipment Advantages to Expand New Business - The company possesses strong technological capabilities and equipment advantages, which allow it to expand into new areas such as screw and joint assemblies [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the company's comprehensive equipment reserves and its ability to leverage these for enhanced production capabilities and product matrix expansion [2][3]. 4. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.4 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 3.0 billion RMB by 2027, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 249 to 136 [3][6]. - Given the company's leading position in the domestic harmonic reducer market and clear growth trajectory, the report assigns a target PE of 230 for 2026 [3].