美联储政策观察：暂停降息的醉翁之意

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in January is supported by cautious assessments of the economic fundamentals and rising political pressures[4] - After a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points, the Fed's policy stance is nearing a neutral range, making further rate cuts less likely in the short term[8] - The labor market shows resilience with a limited increase in the unemployment rate, while core CPI has decreased to 2.6%, still above the 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[8][10] Political Context - The ongoing political pressure from the White House complicates the Fed's decision-making process, with Powell facing significant scrutiny and potential threats to the Fed's independence[10] - The upcoming midterm elections may intensify the White House's influence on Fed policies, making it crucial for the Fed to maintain its independence by delaying rate cuts[10] Market Expectations - Current market pricing indicates a strong expectation for the Fed to hold rates steady in January, with minimal anticipation for immediate rate cuts[11] - The probability of Rick Reed becoming the next Fed Chair has significantly increased, which could influence future monetary policy direction[21][22] Future Projections - If economic data remains stable, the necessity for rate cuts will likely decrease, with the Fed expected to maintain its current stance until at least May, when a new chair may take office[10] - The Fed may consider 1-2 rate cuts within the year, depending on economic performance and political dynamics[10]